Metro Manila has returned to the level before the surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases driven by the highly infectious Delta variant, the OCTA Research group said Thursday, Nov. 4.

In a virtual forum, OCTA fellow Professor Guido David said the number of cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) remains on a downward trend as the seven-day average dipped to 630 cases per day.

“Essentially, we have reversed the Delta surge already in the NCR,” David said. “We’re back to where we were before the surge.”

‘Low risk’ for COVID-19

According to OCTA, the metropolis remains at “low-risk” classification for COVID-19, citing metrics developed by the covidactnow.org.

The metro’s reproduction number, which refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual, currently at low 0.43.

However, the regions average daily attack rate remains moderate at 4.45 per 100,000 individuals.

Healthcare utilization rate in NCR was at low 29 percent, while the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy was at low 39 percent.

Likewise, OCTA noted that the positivity of those tested for the virus in NCR further decreased to 4 percent,

David earlier pointed out that a positivity rate of 5 percent or below is an acceptable positivity rate, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) standards.

Drop in cases

The OCTA fellow noted that the decline in the number of cases in the region was first observed during the middle of September.

“We are at around pre-Delta surge level already in Metro Manila,” David said. “For the entire country, it’s like we reversed back to March of this year in terms of number of cases.”

OCTA said the country’s seven-day average was less than 4,000 cases per day, which according to David, is “already as low as back in March.”

David attributed the drop in the number of infections in Metro Manila to a number of factors, including vaccination, noting that more than 80 percent of the region’s adult population have already been fully vaccinated.