The seven-day average of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila had decreased to below 300 cases over the past week, which according to OCTA Research Group was last recorded in January 2021.

In an update via Twitter on Tuesday, Nov. 23, OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila had an average of 293 daily new cases from Nov. 16 to 22.

"The last time the seven-day average in the NCR was below 300 was from January 2 to 8, 2021," he said.

Citing the decrease in cases, David projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may further go down to 100 cases by Christmas.

"Based on current trends, the seven-day average in the NCR could decrease to less than 200 by the first week of December and to less than 100 around Christmas," David said.

"The positive growth observed in new COVID-19 cases in the NCR during the previous week (from November 7 to 11) has reverted back to negative growth, with a most current growth rate of -31 percent," he pointed out.

The region's incidence or average daily attack rate has also decreased to 2.07 cases per day per 100,000 population.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number and positivity rate remained at 0.50 and 2 percent, respectively.

David also noted that healthcare utilization remained "very low" at 24 percent, while ICU occupancy was "low" at 31 percent.

As the COVID-19 situation continues to improve, OCTA reminded the public that the trend can be easily reversed if people are complacent.

David advised the public to continue to adhere to the minimum public health protocols to prevent a resurgence in infections.

"We must continue to adhere to minimum public health standards to sustain the trends," he said.