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Private sector's pitch for data-based, transparent NCR alert level classification moves forward
Private sector's pitch for data-based, transparent NCR alert level classification moves forward
The private sector scored a victory after it gained the Department of Health's (DOH) commitment to review its proposal for a more scientific and transparent way of determining alert level classifications in Metro Manila.
Such commitment was given after Presidential Adviser on Entrepreneurship and Go Negosyo founder Joey Concepcion and OCTA Research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco met with Dr. Alethea De Guzman from the DOH-Epidemiology Bureau.
Concepcion and De Guzman made their pitch during the meeting.
“We have to agree on certain parameters to determine the alert levels that is easier to understand. Our goal is to do the reopening safely and limit the mobility of the unvaccinated to protect them from risks,” Concepcion said.
“I am glad that we are putting the best minds from the DOH, Fr. Nick and the OCTA group to work on a transparent method on deciding alert levels. Our lives and livelihood depend heavily on this,” he underscored.
The alert level classifications pertain to the Alert Level System (ALS) that is currently in effect in the National Capital Region (NCR) or Metro Manila. The ALS replaced the region-wide quarantine system in the metropolis in connection with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
In the meeting, Concepcion stressed the need to have a clearer way to identify alert levels so the private sector can better prepare for their activities.
De Guzman extended her gratitude to the Go Negosyo Founder for initiating the discussion as they finalize the proposal to be presented to the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) for proper deliberation. The DOH is part of the IATF.
“The DOH will take note of the suggestions presented Go Negosyo and OCTA and hopefully we can come up with a clearer guideline in the next two weeks,” De Guzman said.
In their presentation to the DOH, Concepcion, Austriaco, and other OCTA research fellows suggested tweaking the way alert level classifications are determined to make it more data-based and transparent to the public.
Among their recommendation is to utilize data from the number of active cases, vaccination data, and the hospitalization status of COVID-positive cases to determine the alert level classification in the NCR.
“We propose to link alert levels to percentage of total active cases in the National Capital Region that require hospitalization,” said Austriaco, who based his recommendation on his analysis of the critical threshold level of active cases in the NCR.
When NCR experienced the peak of the Delta variant surge in mid-September with 36,427 active cases, Austriaco said Metro Manila experienced the maximum staffed bed capacity of 7,400 total beds (including 1,115 intensive care unit beds) occupied, while 20 percent of active cases were hospitalized.
“With this number as our basis, we have to establish a re-opening strategy that ensures that we do not exceed this bed capacity in the NCR,” Austriaco pointed out.
Dr. Guido David said the downtrend in NCR cases support Go Negosyo’s call to allow more mobility for fully vaccinated individuals to help jumpstart the economy. He also presented a scoring system based on average daily attack date (ADAR), healthcare utilization rate (HCUR), positivity rate, and reproduction numbers--all of which can be used as basis to determine risk level.
Lastly, Dr. Michael Tee suggested the inclusion of the fully vaccinated population as a metric for the alert system level. NCR is expected to reach an 80 percent vaccination rate by the end of October. The vaccination of kids aged 12-17 will also start this month.
The IATF has said that while Metro Manila will remain under alert level 4 until Oct. 15, it has allowed the operation of gyms at 20 percent capacity. The IATF also added 10 percent capacity for restaurants, barbershops, and other personal care services, but only for fully vaccinated customers.
“We are hoping the IATF will be amenable to our proposal and would utilize it as guide when setting alert levels in the National Capital Region,” Concepcion said.
Dr. De Guzman also showed support for the private sector’s collective call. “Yes, I am from the health sector but from the start it should be health and the economy working together. I would like to assure the private sector that we understand that really need the economy to recover."