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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider OCTA: COVID-19 infections on downward trend in 'NCR Plus 8'

OCTA: COVID-19 infections on downward trend in 'NCR Plus 8'

Published Oct 3, 2021 12:52 pm

(DR. GUIDO DAVID / TWITTER)

Independent research group OCTA on Sunday, Oct. 3, observed a continuous downward trend of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infections in Metro Manila and eight key provinces and cities, known as the "NCR (National Capital Region) Plus 8."

The NCR Plus 8 comprises Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Cebu City, and Davao City.

In a tweet on Sunday, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David attributed the improvement in the situation to the "vaccinations, compliance with health standards, implementation of restrictions, and Delta nearing end in these areas."

Based on the indicators used by Covid Act Now, the NCR Plus 8 areas had reproduction numbers below 0.9, which is considered in the "low risk" range.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.

The lowest reproduction was registered in Cavite at 0.63, followed by Cebu City at 0.66, Laguna at 0.68, Bulacan at 0.70, and Batangas at 0.74.

Metro Manila had a reproduction number of 0.83, Pampanga and Rizal at 0.85, and Davao City at 0.89.

The average daily attack rate (ADAR) or infection rate in Metro Manila, however, was still "very high" at 25.05 cases per 100,000 population.

All the other areas, except Cebu City, had ADARs within the "high risk" range.

Moreover, Metro Manila's positivity rate, which refers to the number of people who test positive given the testing, was down to 16 percent, but still considered "high."

Davao City (20 percent) and Cavite (17 percent) also had high levels of positivity rate.

Positivity rates remain "very high" in Batangas (21 percent), Bulacan (26 percent), Laguna (29 percent), Pampanga (28 percent), and Rizal (23 percent).

Only Cebu City's positivity rate (8 percent) was considered medium or moderate risk. Its ADAR was also moderate at 5.29 cases per 100,000 population.

In terms of health care utilization, Metro Manila (59 percent), Cebu City (37 percent), and Bulacan (57 percent) are down to low risk.

Meanwhile, health care utilization in Davao City (62 percent), Cavite (61 percent), Laguna (64 percent), and Pampanga (67 percent), are still classified as "medium or moderate risk."

Health care utilization rates in Batangas (74 percent) and Rizal (73 percent) also remain "high risk."

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covid-19 OCTA Research Dr. Guido David
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