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Pandemic's impact on employment worse than expected — ILO

Published Oct 29, 2021 01:20 pm

The loss of working hours in 2021 due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to be significantly higher than estimated, the International Labor Organization (ILO) reported Friday, Oct. 29.

(FILE PHOTO / MANILA BULLETIN)

In its latest monitoring report on the impact of COVID-19 on labor markets, the ILO said differing recovery rates between developed and developing nations threaten the global economy as a whole.

The ILO is now projecting that global hours worked in 2021 will be 4.3 percent below pre-pandemic levels or during the fourth quarter of 2019, which is equivalent to some 125 million full-time jobs.

These figures, the organization added, represent a dramatic revision of its June projection of 3.5 percent or 100 million full-time jobs.

It likewise warned that without concrete financial and technical support, a "great divergence" in employment recovery trends between developed and developing countries will persist.

"The current trajectory of labor markets is of a stalled recovery, with major downside risks appearing, and a great divergence between developed and developing economies," ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said in a statement.

According to Ryder, this "great divergence" is largely driven by the major differences in the roll-out of vaccinations and fiscal stimulus packages.

"Dramatically, unequal vaccine distribution and fiscal capacities are driving these trends and both need to be addressed urgently," he added.

Based on the ILO report, it estimated that for every 14 persons fully vaccinated in the second quarter of 2021, one full-time equivalent job was added to the global labor market -- which is a substantial boost to the recovery.

"Globally, losses in hours worked — in the absence of any vaccines — would have stood at 6.0 percent in the second quarter of 2021, rather than the 4.8 percent actually recorded," it said.

However, the report added that the highly uneven rollout of vaccinations means that the positive effect was largest in high-income countries, negligible in lower-middle-income countries, and almost zero in low-income countries.

"These imbalances could be rapidly and effectively addressed through greater global solidarity in respect of vaccines. The ILO estimates that if low-income countries had a more equitable access to vaccines, working-hour recovery would catch up with richer economies in just over one quarter," it noted.

Aside from the uneven vaccination rollout, the ILO said that fiscal stimulus packages continued to be the other key factor in the trajectories of recovery as the gap remains "largely unaddressed" with around 86 percent of global stimulus measures being concentrated in high-income countries.

Meanwhile, Ryder assured that the organization is already addressing these issues through adopting a "Global Call to Action" for a human-centered pandemic recovery.

"It is a roadmap that commits countries to ensure that their economic and social recovery from the crisis is fully inclusive, sustainable, and resilient. It is time to implement this roadmap, which is fully aligned with and supports the United Nation's Common Agenda and its Global Accelerator for Jobs and Social Protection," he added.

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International Labor Organization employment workers ilo COVID-19 crisis pandemic impact
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