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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PAGASA: 2 or 3 cyclones may enter PH in October

PAGASA: 2 or 3 cyclones may enter PH in October

Published Oct 2, 2021 12:00 pm

(PAGASA)

Two or three tropical cyclones may enter or affect the country this month, based on the average cyclone frequency inside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) during the period 1948-2015.

Cyclone tracks in October are mostly landfalling or crossing the landmass but still some cyclones are recurving or do not directly affect the country.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the climatological tracks of tropical cyclones inside the PAR in October suggest four common tracks.

Tropical cyclones that form in the western Pacific enter the PAR but do not make landfall as they tend to move toward the northeastern part of PAR then to Japan or Korea.

Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing Northern or Central Luzon then toward Hong Kong or China.

Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing Central or Southern Luzon then toward Vietnam.

Landfalling tropical cyclones traversing the Visayas then toward Vietnam.

Based on its rainfall forecast for October, PAGASA said that generally near normal to above normal rainfall conditions may persist over most of the country.

The probability of above-normal rainfall is "high," it pointed out.

PAGASA also continues to monitor the probable emergence of La Niña conditions in the coming months.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

With the threat of La Niña looming, there is a higher probability of above-normal rainfall conditions in several parts of the country in the coming months, PAGASA said.

The rains could be triggered by stronger easterlies, enhanced northeast monsoon or "amihan," and tropical cyclones.

As of Saturday, Oct. 2, PAGASA said the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) remains the dominant weather system in the country.

It also does not expect the formation of a tropical cyclone in the next two to three days.

In the next 24 hours, PAGASA said partly cloudy to cloudy conditions may persist over Metro Manila and the rest of the country.

It advised the public to take precautions against possible flash floods or landslides especially during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms, which are often associated with short-lived heavy rains.

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