DOH sees significant drop in COVID-19 cases in NCR if Alert Level 4 remains

Published October 11, 2021, 1:09 PM

by Jhon Aldrin Casinas

Department of Health

Metro Manila may see a significant decrease in the number of daily and active coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases by the end of the month if the region will remain under Alert Level 4, the Department of Health (DOH) said Monday, Oct. 11.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire presented the projected number of daily and active cases in the region by Oct. 31 based on several assumptions.

Daily cases

Vergeire explained that daily cases in Metro Manila may decrease to 1,731 cases by Oct. 31 if the region will remain under Alert level 4, and with a shorter detection-to-isolation time of four days.

But if Alert Level 3 would be imposed, the Health department projected that the National Capital Region (NCR) may see 3,211 to 3,605 cases per day.

In the scenario that the detection-to-isolation time is at six days, daily cases may decrease to 2,195 under Alert level 4 by end of the month, while 4,061 to 4,557 daily cases is expected if Alert Level 3 is imposed.

“This further supports our call to focus on reducing the time between detection and isolation, and to not only rely on measures that restricts mobility,” Vergeire said In a virtual briefing on Monday, Oct. 11.

As of Oct. 1, actual daily cases in the region stood at 3,897, according to the DOH.

A slide from the report of Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire

Active cases

If detection-to-isolation time is pegged at four days, active cases in the metropolis may decrease to 10,100 cases by Oct. 31, if Alert Level 4 will be maintained.

On the other hand, the DOH estimated that about 13,471 to 14,672 active cases if Alert Level 3 will be imposed, and with a shorter detection-to-isolation time.

“However, if detection to isolation time is again prolonged, active cases may decrease to 11,779 cases under Alert Level 4, and an increase up to 16,332 to 17,967 active cases if Alert Level 3 is imposed,” she said.

As of Oct. 1, actual active cases was at 29,334 in Metro Manila.

A slide from the report of Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire

“While we see a decrease in case projections, we want to see an optimal decrease and this will be possible by further shortening detection-to-isolation time,” Vergeire said.

 
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