No to déjà vu!
Published Jan 7, 2021 07:46 am
OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT
Diwa C. Guinigundo
In our last column for 2020, we called on the Philippine authorities not to drop the ball this year. It’s 2021. There’s no more time to catch up; we are in the last quarter of the game. Even a full-court press, man to man guarding of every political or economic risk, could prove fruitless in the end.
In baseball, it is indispensable to always keep an eye on the ball.
These ballgame expressions should be the mantra for 2021.
For there are two variants of coronavirus that are stalking the globe, not in darkness, but in the bright light of day.
Notwithstanding the initial reluctance to do it, Philippine authorities banned foreign nationals with recent travel histories in Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lebanon, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and Hong Kong from entering the Philippines. Filipino citizens arriving from these territories must quarantine for 14 days at a government-run facility upon their arrival.
This ban extends from December 30, 2020 to January 15, 2021. It could be extended beyond this period, or to other territories, if warranted.
Most media covered these new variants for most of December, 2020, and The Economist ran a very perceptive report last January 2. These variants have appeared in two independent events.
One was in Britain where some researchers associated with “COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium” or cog-uk published the genetic sequence of variant b.1.1.7. Another group, nervtag, that focuses on “emerging viral threats, advised the government that this version of the virus was 67-75 percent more transmissible than those already infecting the country.”
The other variant was reported in South Africa by a leading epidemiologist identified as Salim AbdoolKalim who disclosed on television about a variant called 501.v2 that would explain 90 percent of new COVID-19 infections in the South African province of Western Cape.
While Britain was quite prompt in its response to further tighten the screws, the British variant has been sighted in a number of countries from where international travels could originate to spread the virus globally. The South African variant was reported moving around in Australia, Britain, Japan, and Switzerland.
The Philippine authorities’ ban was therefore in order but a little late by ten days behind UK and two days behind South Africa. We reckon by the day because both variants, if permitted to enter Manila even without visa or passport, can spread rapidly. The Economist reported that “the evidence suggests that despite their extra transmissibility, neither new variant is more dangerous on a case-by-case basis than existing versions of the virus.”
In terms of economics, a more rapid spread of the virus and headline numbers reflecting it are enough to restore community quarantines to their more restricted settings. It will not be remote to see the new variants conspiring to depress consumer and business confidence and keep the economy down on its knees.
The explanation for the mutation is very instructive but quite scary.
The British variant was noted for its 17 differences from the original version of SARS-COV-2. For scientists, 17 mutations are a lot, not the least of which are in some of the proteins strategic for the virus to attach itself to its cellular prey. It is feared that the mutation could also pave the way for animal infection as reported in farmed mink in Denmark. While the South African variant has only three mutations, they are also considered significant.
How does science hypothesize on such trajectories?
It is possible the mutation is not happening in the entire population of the infected. Among the infected, we have weak, very young and old preys whose natural immunity may not be that strong to resist the virus. Weak pressure against the virus offers its mutation a most conducive condition to multiply. Administering treatment based on what is called convalescent plasma, that is, serum from recovered covid patients may, not work very well because there is now a “diverse viral population in the patient’s body.”
Will the vaccines succeed against these two variants?
The Economist wrote that given the mutations occurred and spread before the vaccines became available, and the Philippines is in fact still waiting for them, the vaccines could be effective.
But the future may not necessarily be secured because of the power of evolution. The two variants formed themselves and came into play to provide a sequel to Pandemic 1: Wuhan Goes Global. Whether we shall see Pandemic 2: When One becomes Two will depend on its box office performance.
If each country’s authorities are smart enough, we may not see the sequel. Having played this game, we have the option to go through the established motion. International travel restriction remains the immediate deterrent against the original virus and its two variants. Observing health protocols or the health commandments is the second line of defense. These are the outside-the-vax solutions. To achieve a desirable level of herd immunity, effective, safe, and affordable vaccination is most desirable.
While we may be generally protected through those restrictions at the borders, we suggest to the authorities to step up the most basic way to mitigate any possible spread should the virus—in whatever form—manage to sneak in. We are referring to testing, tracing, quarantining, and treating. Yes, we have to give it to both government and the private sector that while more space for further improvement exists in all four areas, especially in coordination and execution, things have become more manageable. Daily incidence of infection seems to have stabilized at around 1,000 cases.
But we have a stronger chance of mitigating Pandemic 2 if at this time, we sustain our leveraging on technology to establish the whereabouts of individuals at any given time. In our trip to Baguio last weekend, we were required to present antigen-negative test result, submit this to Baguio Visita for processing and in a few hours, an approval is released with QR code. This is further processed once we arrived in Baguio for triage. But the city could further fortify its defenses against the virus if every establishment is wired to a database center. Anyone with the QR code could simply show this to a reader in each establishment and directly transmitted to the data center for consolidation and tracing purposes should an outbreak occur.
If this solution is replicated nationwide, tracing becomes easier, targeted mitigation becomes possible so a generalized lockdown would be avoided. Filling up forms at every establishment we visit is a disincentive to normal business activity. If we are very certain about a strong economic recovery this year, and we prepare ourselves for another encounter with the virus of whatever form, our forecasts would be closer to reality, and therefore more credible. Short of this is keeping our eye away from the ball. And it is possible we drop the ball again, and drop the game.
No to déjà vu!
Diwa C. Guinigundo
In our last column for 2020, we called on the Philippine authorities not to drop the ball this year. It’s 2021. There’s no more time to catch up; we are in the last quarter of the game. Even a full-court press, man to man guarding of every political or economic risk, could prove fruitless in the end.
In baseball, it is indispensable to always keep an eye on the ball.
These ballgame expressions should be the mantra for 2021.
For there are two variants of coronavirus that are stalking the globe, not in darkness, but in the bright light of day.
Notwithstanding the initial reluctance to do it, Philippine authorities banned foreign nationals with recent travel histories in Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lebanon, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and Hong Kong from entering the Philippines. Filipino citizens arriving from these territories must quarantine for 14 days at a government-run facility upon their arrival.
This ban extends from December 30, 2020 to January 15, 2021. It could be extended beyond this period, or to other territories, if warranted.
Most media covered these new variants for most of December, 2020, and The Economist ran a very perceptive report last January 2. These variants have appeared in two independent events.
One was in Britain where some researchers associated with “COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium” or cog-uk published the genetic sequence of variant b.1.1.7. Another group, nervtag, that focuses on “emerging viral threats, advised the government that this version of the virus was 67-75 percent more transmissible than those already infecting the country.”
The other variant was reported in South Africa by a leading epidemiologist identified as Salim AbdoolKalim who disclosed on television about a variant called 501.v2 that would explain 90 percent of new COVID-19 infections in the South African province of Western Cape.
While Britain was quite prompt in its response to further tighten the screws, the British variant has been sighted in a number of countries from where international travels could originate to spread the virus globally. The South African variant was reported moving around in Australia, Britain, Japan, and Switzerland.
The Philippine authorities’ ban was therefore in order but a little late by ten days behind UK and two days behind South Africa. We reckon by the day because both variants, if permitted to enter Manila even without visa or passport, can spread rapidly. The Economist reported that “the evidence suggests that despite their extra transmissibility, neither new variant is more dangerous on a case-by-case basis than existing versions of the virus.”
In terms of economics, a more rapid spread of the virus and headline numbers reflecting it are enough to restore community quarantines to their more restricted settings. It will not be remote to see the new variants conspiring to depress consumer and business confidence and keep the economy down on its knees.
The explanation for the mutation is very instructive but quite scary.
The British variant was noted for its 17 differences from the original version of SARS-COV-2. For scientists, 17 mutations are a lot, not the least of which are in some of the proteins strategic for the virus to attach itself to its cellular prey. It is feared that the mutation could also pave the way for animal infection as reported in farmed mink in Denmark. While the South African variant has only three mutations, they are also considered significant.
How does science hypothesize on such trajectories?
It is possible the mutation is not happening in the entire population of the infected. Among the infected, we have weak, very young and old preys whose natural immunity may not be that strong to resist the virus. Weak pressure against the virus offers its mutation a most conducive condition to multiply. Administering treatment based on what is called convalescent plasma, that is, serum from recovered covid patients may, not work very well because there is now a “diverse viral population in the patient’s body.”
Will the vaccines succeed against these two variants?
The Economist wrote that given the mutations occurred and spread before the vaccines became available, and the Philippines is in fact still waiting for them, the vaccines could be effective.
But the future may not necessarily be secured because of the power of evolution. The two variants formed themselves and came into play to provide a sequel to Pandemic 1: Wuhan Goes Global. Whether we shall see Pandemic 2: When One becomes Two will depend on its box office performance.
If each country’s authorities are smart enough, we may not see the sequel. Having played this game, we have the option to go through the established motion. International travel restriction remains the immediate deterrent against the original virus and its two variants. Observing health protocols or the health commandments is the second line of defense. These are the outside-the-vax solutions. To achieve a desirable level of herd immunity, effective, safe, and affordable vaccination is most desirable.
While we may be generally protected through those restrictions at the borders, we suggest to the authorities to step up the most basic way to mitigate any possible spread should the virus—in whatever form—manage to sneak in. We are referring to testing, tracing, quarantining, and treating. Yes, we have to give it to both government and the private sector that while more space for further improvement exists in all four areas, especially in coordination and execution, things have become more manageable. Daily incidence of infection seems to have stabilized at around 1,000 cases.
But we have a stronger chance of mitigating Pandemic 2 if at this time, we sustain our leveraging on technology to establish the whereabouts of individuals at any given time. In our trip to Baguio last weekend, we were required to present antigen-negative test result, submit this to Baguio Visita for processing and in a few hours, an approval is released with QR code. This is further processed once we arrived in Baguio for triage. But the city could further fortify its defenses against the virus if every establishment is wired to a database center. Anyone with the QR code could simply show this to a reader in each establishment and directly transmitted to the data center for consolidation and tracing purposes should an outbreak occur.
If this solution is replicated nationwide, tracing becomes easier, targeted mitigation becomes possible so a generalized lockdown would be avoided. Filling up forms at every establishment we visit is a disincentive to normal business activity. If we are very certain about a strong economic recovery this year, and we prepare ourselves for another encounter with the virus of whatever form, our forecasts would be closer to reality, and therefore more credible. Short of this is keeping our eye away from the ball. And it is possible we drop the ball again, and drop the game.
No to déjà vu!