The reproduction number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila has further dipped to 1.25, with a growth rate in cases of only 3 percent, independent research group OCTA said on Friday, Sept. 17.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that Metro Manila averaged 5,710 cases daily from Sept. 10 to 16, which is just 3 percent higher than the average daily cases from Sept. 3 to 9.
Consistent with the recorded lower growth rate was the registered lower reproduction number over the past seven days.
David said Metro Manila’s reproduction number is currently at 1.25.
OCTA has been hoping that the reproduction number will decrease to below 1 to see a reduction in the actual number of daily reported COVID-19 cases.
Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual and is the primary indicator used by OCTA to study COVID trends in the country.
Meanwhile, the positivity rate in Metro Manila over the past seven days remains high at 25 percent. This refers to the percentage of PCR tests that yielded a positive result.
The ideal positivity rate set by the World Health Organization is 5 percent.
In a series of posts on Twitter on Thursday, Sept. 16, David said the Philippines has averaged 20,329 cases over the past week–an increase of 1 percent from the previous week.
The country’s reproduction has also slipped to 1.20.
“New cases in the country may be peaking, and if the trend continues, the country is not likely to have 30k [30,000] cases in one day,” David said.
However, he warned that the downward trend could be easily reversed if the public does not exercise proper caution.