PH COVID-19 cases may reach up to 40K daily by late September, early October -- UP expert

The Philippines may reach up to 40,000 new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases per day by late September or early October, an expert from the University of the Philippines (UP) said Wednesday, Sept. 15.


In an interview with ANC's Rundown, UP Pandemic Response Team spokesman Dr. Jomar Rabajante said the coronavirus cases in the country will continue to increase as the positivity rate is still high.

“Based on that projections, the numbers could still be increasing up to the end of September, early October and we might reach 30,000-40,000 cases per day, reported through RT-PCR testing,” he said.

The country recorded 18,056 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, Sept. 14.

Rabajante noted undetected cases and those detected by antigen test are not yet included in their projection.

“Positivity rate is still high. It’s nearly 30 percent which means that in three people being tested by RT-PCR, one might turn out to be positive," he said.

The Department of Health (DOH) had also earlier projected the new daily cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may range from 16,000 to 43,000 by end of September amid the continuous spreading of the more transmissible Delta variant.

Meanwhile, hospital occupancy rates in the country remain high, Rabajante noted.

“In terms of ICU beds and bed wards, they are still increasing but, it’s slowing down," he said.

"Compared to the previous speed like in the March 2021 increase it’s slowing down but of course, it’s just the rate. In terms of the actual number it’s still high, that’s why we hear news saying that hospitals are overwhelmed with severe and critical cases,” added Rabajante.

He also pointed out that the decrease in speed is possibly due to vaccination.

"Comparing our projections for the cases with and without vaccination, we see effect in vaccination, especially in the NCR," he added.