'Jolina' further weakens while crossing Sibuyan Sea


Severe tropical storm "Jolina" (international name "Conson") has further weakened but may still bring rains over Bicol Region, Southern Luzon, Western Visayas, and Metro Manila in the next 24 hours.

In the 5 p.m. bulletin issued on Tuesday, Sept. 7, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) estimated the center of severe tropical storm Jolina at 60 kilometers (km) west-northwest of Masbate City or 90 km east of Romblon, Romblon.

Jolina has maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 125 kph while moving west-northwest at 15 kph.

Due to the anticipated passage of Jolina, Signal No. 2 remains hoisted over the central and southern portions of Quezon, southern portion of Rizal, Laguna, southeastern portion of Batangas, northeastern portion of Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Sorsogon, western portion of Albay, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, western and southern portion of Camarines Sur, and western portion of Camarines Norte.

Signal No. 1 is also in effect in the southern portion of Aurora, southern portion of Quirino, southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, the rest of Rizal, the rest of Quezon, Cavite, the rest of Batangas, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the rest of Albay.

Likewise, under Signal No. 1 were the western portion of Northern Samar, northwestern portion of Samar, Biliran, northwestern portion of Leyte, northern portion of Cebu, northern portion of Negros Occidental, Capiz, Aklan, northern portion of Iloilo, and northwestern portion of Antique.

Tropical cyclone warnings in other areas have been lifted.

Heavy rains, wind gusts, storm surges

Although Jolina has continued to weaken, PAGASA said the severe tropical storm may continue to bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Masbate, Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro in the next 24 hours.

Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains may also prevail over Metro Manila, Aurora, the rest of Quezon province, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Aklan, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental.

"Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding, including flash floods, and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps," PAGASA warned.

Likewise, damaging gale-force to storm-force winds may occur in areas under Signal No. 2 and strong winds with occasional gusts in areas under Signal No. 1.

"In the next 24 hours, the threat of coastal inundation due to storm surge up to 0.5-1.0 m (meter) continues for several coastal localities of Biliran, Sorsogon, Samar, and Masbate," PAGASA also said.

Jolina's forecast track and intensity

In the next 12 hours, PAGASA said Jolina may continue to move generally west-northwest, traverse Sibuyan Sea, towards the Southern Quezon-Marinduque area.

Jolina will likely make landfall or pass near the Marinduque-Southern Quezon area on Wednesday morning, Sept. 8.

Afterward, the tropical cyclone is seen to traverse Tayabas Bay and will make another landfall over the southwestern portion of Quezon province by Wednesday afternoon.

"Throughout the remainder of tomorrow (Sept. 8) and into Thursday morning (Sept. 9), the tropical cyclone is forecast to traverse Calabarzon, roughly south of Metro Manila, and Central Luzon before exiting the landmass," PAGASA said.

"Frictional effects" while crossing the Luzon landmass will likely lead to the weakening of the cyclone to tropical storm category, PAGASA added.

"Jolina is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea before noon on Thursday. Re-intensification is forecast to occur beginning Thursday afternoon as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea towards the southern China-northern Vietnam area," it said.

Jolina will likely leave the Philippine area of responsibility by Friday, Sept. 10.