Independent research group OCTA sees the reproduction number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila to fall below 1 in the next three weeks.
Reproduction number refers to the rate of transmission of infection. It indicates how many people a single individual with COVID-19 can infect.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Wednesday, Sept. 1, said Metro Manila's reproduction number has decreased to 1.43 on Aug. 31, from 1.56 on Aug. 24.
He noted that Quezon City and Manila City have also seen lower reproduction numbers from 1.47 to 1.27 and from 1.49 to 1.33, respectively.
"At this rate, R (reproduction number) in the NCR (National Capital Region) may decrease to less than 1 in three weeks," he said.
On Aug. 24, David said that Metro Manila may begin to see a decreasing number of COVID-19 cases by the first or second week of September.
He then explained that the first indications that the situation has started to improve were the observed decreases in COVID growth rate and reproduction number or infection rate.
Metro Manila had registered 3,515 new COVID-19 cases on Aug. 31, lower than the 5,588 cases on Aug. 30.