The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) estimated that two or three tropical cyclones may enter or affect the country in September.
Based on the average cyclone frequency inside the country’s area of responsibility during the period 1948-2015, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis also estimates the following number of tropical cyclones that may enter or affect PAR–October, 2 or 3; and November, 2 or 3.
Solis noted that most landfalling and disastrous tropical cyclones usually occur in September- November, based on climatological records.
“During the months of July, August, September, ‘yan ‘yung months na may maraming bagyo na nakaapekto sa bansa (these are the months where more tropical cyclones usually affect the country),” Solis said during PAGASA’s Climate Outlook Forum on Wednesday, Aug. 25.
“Mostly ‘yung crossing o disastrous tropical cyclones [naman] ay ‘yung pagdating ng September, October, November (On the other hand, the crossing or disastrous tropical cyclones mostly occur in September, October, and November),” she added.
Some of the most disastrous tropical cyclones that occurred between September and November in recent years were Ulysses (Vamco) in November 2020, Rolly (Goni) in October 2020, Yolanda (Haiyan) in November 2013, and Ondoy (Ketsana) in September 2009.
Based on PAGASA’s rainfall forecast, Solis said that most of the country will have generally near-normal rains except for above-normal rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental, by September.
By October, generally near-normal to above-normal rainfall conditions may prevail across the country.
By November, most parts of Luzon may have generally above-normal rainfall conditions, while mostly near normal rainfall is expected in Visayas and Mindanao.
Solis said that by December, rains will be generally near-normal over most parts of the country with patches of above-normal rainfall in the eastern section of Luzon, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, and portions of Western Visayas.