COVID-19 cases could still go up even with ECQ

The limited number of vaccines against the dreaded COVID-19 in the country has left the government no choice but to use non-medical interventions to slow down the spread of the disease. This includes the order to use masks, the mandate for physical distancing, and the implementation of quarantine protocols in highly affected areas. This month, the strictest level of quarantine was imposed in NCR to reduce the impact of critical cases on the medical system and control the spread of the virus.

As the virus could not move on its own, it piggybacks on people to spread. Implementing the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) is a good move as it supposedly limits movements of the population and thus avoids further infections. However, the government also needs to implement measures to reduce the mobility of the people.

As the number of cases increased immediately during the implementation of the ECQ, we could not help but ask, "is the ECQ in NCR working?".

The government announced on July 30 that ECQ would start on August 6 as it was feared that the Delta variant is already in the National Capital Region. On August 6, the Department of Health (DOH) confirmed that the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant has been found in all cities of Metro Manila.

Using Facebook Data for Good, we found out that from July 31 to August 3, there was a tremendous increase of movements from the NCR to the provinces. This was immediately after the announcement. The population movement before the lockdown defeats the purpose of the ECQ and could have spread the Delta variant outside of the NCR faster. The announcement days ahead of the implementation of the ECQ caused the exodus away from the NCR and helped spread the Delta variant all over the country.

Here's an update:

Still using Facebook's Data for Good, I track the movements of FB users on Aug 7 and 8, 2021. I wanted to confirm a reduction in travel from NCR. This is the expectation of "ECQ lockdown." But the opposite is, in fact, happening. We still see movements from NCR to other parts of the country. I chart this map to show these migration routes OUT of NCR.

Note: I previously compared the changes in travel volume using the "Percent Change" value. This method produced wide variance between values. I was advised to use Z-score instead. It measures how many standard deviations below or above the mean a raw score is. It limits the changes to between -4 and +4.

As you can see, the lines are color-coded using their Z values. The red lines (+4) mean that MORE people traveled into an area, while green lines (-4) mean that fewer people went into an area. During this pandemic, you would want to see NO lines as much as possible.

However, failing this, the next best thing is a reduction in travel volume. These are the green lines. The worst that can happen is an increase in travel. These are the red lines. There is a seeming "Flight to Safety" for residents - particularly from Las Pinas and Pasig - to the provinces. This raises serious alarm bells ringing. For if these residents are fleeing areas with known Delta cases (https://mb.com.ph/2021/08/06/presence-of-delta-variant-detected-in-all-metro-manila-cities-doh/), they could be carrying the dreaded Delta Variant. And they could be spreading the variant back to their hometowns.

This table charts the places where travel happened after the most recent ECQ (Aug 7- 9, 2021). I sorted them from HIGHEST to Lowest.

Unless the National and Local governments work together to enforce border controls, I fear that the Delta variant will inevitably spread to all corners of the Philippines. This should be a wake-up call for us all.

Update: There is some good news. As of August 9, 2021, we see most of NCR plus areas with reduced travel. We see greener squares over Ilocos Norte, NCR, Calabarzon and Iloilo.