Independent research group OCTA on Tuesday, Aug. 10, expressed "very serious" concern about the new surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases that are happening not just in Metro Manila but also in other parts of the country.
"This is very serious even comparing it with what happened last March (2021). The reason is that when we had the surge in March due to the Alpha and Beta variants, it was primarily in the NCR (National Capital Region). In fact, when we reported 10,000 up to 11,000 cases in March and April, 94 percent of those cases were within the NCR plus bubble. So the difference now is that it’s not just in the NCR but is happening all over the country," Dr. Guido David said in a CNN Philippines interview.
The NCR Plus bubble consisted of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna.
David recommended to the national and local governments to closely monitor the situations in Tuguegarao City, Cebu City, and some areas in Western and Central Visayas.
OCTA, in its report released on Sunday, Aug. 8, noted that the current COVID surge in Cebu City is worse than what it saw in February 2021.
"Of course the situation in the country is different. Some are plateauing, some are just starting to have a surge but that situation is that it’s more widespread now. Containing this very infectious virus, which is the Delta variant, should be our main priority right now," he added.
David also recommended the continuous monitoring of situations in Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite due to the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in these areas.
"Even if we’re able to control the surge in NCR which it looks like we may be doing it now because of the ECQ (enhanced community quarantine), we still have to control the surge in these provinces Bulacan and Cavite, especially because they are very adjacent to the NCR," David pointed out.
David explained that the effect of the lockdown in NCR may not be immediately felt even if there was a slight dip in new cases in the region since Sunday.
"The lag time is usually about three days before we see the effects of the ECQ. As of Saturday (Aug. 7), we had reported the highest number of cases in one day in Metro Manila at 2,800 which is the highest since May 2. Since then, cases have dipped a little bit. It could be that we’re starting to see the effects of the ECQ because cases are slowly stabilizing but again it’s too early to make a generalization based on this," he said.
"There’s a possibility that cases may still increase a little bit but the important thing is for the reproduction number to start decreasing. As of yesterday (Aug. 9), the reproduction number in the NCR is 1.79," he said.
To prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed, David said that the government may consider implementing more strict quarantine restrictions in some places that have not been placed under ECQ.
"Having 'bubbles' would (also) actually be very useful. It proved to be very effective last March around the NCR Plus because what that did is it contained the pandemic entirely within the NCR Plus. But now it’s all over the country so having bubbles would help prevent it from getting to some of the provinces which have not been really impacted yet. We don’t want the Delta variant getting into every place in the Philippines because it is very, very contagious," he said.
"The national and local governments can do localized surgical lockdowns but it’s also really up to the Filipinos to help each other and battle this pandemic by doing our part," he added.