The southwest monsoon or “habagat” enhanced by typhoon “Fabian” (international name “In-fa”) will continue to trigger rains in Metro Manila and several parts of Luzon in the next 24 hours.
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) senior weather specialist Chris Perez on Wednesday afternoon, July 21, said moderate to heavy with occasional intense rains may prevail over Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan, including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands.
Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon may also experience light to moderate to at times heavy rains, while the rest of the country will have rain showers or thunderstorms.
PAGASA warned against possible flash floods or rain-induced landslides during heavy or prolonged rainfall, particularly in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards.
In the PAGASA’s 5 p.m. bulletin, Fabian maintained its maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph while moving west at 10 kph.
The center of the eye of typhoon Fabian was located at 655 kilometers (km) northeast of Itbayat, Batanes around 4 p.m.
Aside from Fabian, Perez said a tropical depression with an international name “Cempaka” is also enhancing the effect of the southwest monsoon.
Cempaka was at 1,145 km west of extreme northern Luzon or outside the Philippine area of responsibility on Wednesday afternoon.
Fabian’s track intensity and outlook
PAGASA said there remains a possibility that tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 may be hoisted over Batanes and Babuyan Islands due to the uncertainty in its forecast track.
Fabian will be moving generally west until early Friday morning, July 23, then west-northwest by Friday afternoon. It will begin to turn northwestward by Saturday morning, July 24.
“On the forecast track, Fabian will pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands of the Ryukyu archipelago on Friday before exiting the Philippine area of responsibility on Saturday morning,” PAGASA said.
“Outside the PAR, Fabian is forecast to move over the sea north of Taiwan by Saturday and will make landfall in the vicinity of southeastern mainland China by Sunday, July 25,” it added.
PAGASA said Fabian may reach its peak intensity of 165 kph by Friday.
“Gradual weakening may occur beginning on Saturday due to frictional effects of the rugged terrain of Taiwan. The landfall over mainland China will result in the rapid weakening of Fabian on Sunday,” the weather bureau said.