Severe tropical storm “Fabian” (international name “In-fa”) has maintained its strength while moving slowly over the Philippine Sea on Monday evening, July 19, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 p.m. bulletin.
PAGASA estimated the center of Fabian at 1,065 kilometers (km) east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon around 10 p.m.
It has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 115 kph while west-northwest slowly.
PAGASA said that Fabian and a tropical storm with international name “Cempaka” are expected to continue enhancing the southwest monsoon or “habagat.”
Cempaka was estimated at 950 km west of extreme northern Luzon or outside the Philippine area of responsibility on Monday evening.
Due to the enhanced habagat, scattered to widespread moderate to at times heavy monsoon rains may prevail over Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan in the next 24 hours.
PAGASA warned against possible flash floods or rain-induced landslides during heavy or prolonged rainfall, particularly in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards.
Track and intensity outlook
Based on Fabian’s latest forecast scenario, the hoisting of tropical cyclone wind signals over any part of the country remains less likely.
However, PAGASA still advised residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins as any further southward shift in the orientation of Fabian’s forecast track may result in the hoisting of Signal No. 1 over these areas.
PAGASA said Fabian may move generally west-northwestward until Tuesday evening, July 20, before turning westward beginning on Wednesday, July 21.
“On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone will pass close or over the vicinity of Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands in the Ryukyu archipelago on Thursday (July 22). Fabian may exit the Philippine area of responsibility on Thursday evening or Friday morning (July 23),” it said.
“Outside the PAR, Fabian will turn west-northwestward and pass close to or over the northern portion of Taiwan on Friday afternoon or evening before making landfall in the vicinity of southeastern mainland China on Saturday afternoon (July 24),” it added.
PAGASA also said that Fabian will likely intensify into a typhoon by Tuesday afternoon or evening.
“A peak intensity of 150 kph may be reached by the tropical cyclone on Thursday, followed by a period of gradual weakening by Friday as it begins to interact with the rugged terrain of Taiwan. Rapid weakening post-landfall on Saturday is expected,” it added.