The low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) will likely develop into a tropical depression in the next 36 hours.
PAGASA weather specialist Raymond Ordinario said the LPA was at 1,085 kilometers east of Mindanao around 3 p.m., Saturday, May 29, and may enter the PAR any time.
Once it becomes a tropical depression inside the PAR, PAGASA will be giving it a local name "Dante," the country's fourth tropical cyclone in 2021.
PAGASA said the LPA is generally moving northwestward over the east Philippine Sea.
As of Saturday, Ordinario said PAGASA is considering two scenarios regarding the movement of the weather disturbance.
"Una, ito ay babaybay lamang dito sa karagatan sa silangan ng ating bansa at di tatama sa kalupaan. Ngunit ngayon may nakikita ang ibang forecast models na posible itong tumama sa Eastern Visayas area (First, it will only hover over the sea east of the country and will not hit land. But other forecast models are seeing a possible landfall over Eastern Visayas)," Ordinario explained.
"Yun pa rin ang dalawang scenario na babantayan natin sa mga susunod na araw dahil ito na ang pwedeng magdulot ng mga ulan dito sa silangang bahagi ng Mindanao at silangang Kabisayaan (Those are the two scenarios that we will monitor in the coming days because these can cause rains in the eastern sections of Mindanao and Visayas)," Ordinario explained.
He also said that the potential cyclone, depending on its movement, could trigger the southwest monsoon or "habagat" in the coming days.
"Posibleng ito na ang dominant weather systems na makaapekto sa malaking bahagi ng ating bansa (It is possible that these will be the dominant weather systems that could affect a huge part of the country)," he added.
As the LPA is still far from the country, Ordinario said that by Sunday, May 30, generally fair weather conditions may persist across most of the country but with more frequent rain showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening, especially over the western section of Luzon and Visayas.