Vaccinate 7 million in NCR to achieve 'herd containment' by end of 2021 — OCTA expert

Published May 24, 2021, 3:13 PM

by Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Monday, May 24, recommended the vaccination of 50 percent of Metro Manila’s population or around 7 million people to achieve “herd containment” before the end of the year.

“Ang realistic target natin is 50 percent ng NCR [National Capital Region], mga 7 million people mavaccinate natin before the end of the year para maachieve yung tinatawag na herd containment. Hindi herd immunity pero herd containment para marereduce yung risk na magkaroon ng outbreak or surge ulit,” he said in a GMA interview.

(Our realistic target is 50 percent of NCR, we can vaccinate about 7 million people before the end of the year to achieve the so-called herd containment. It is not herd immunity but herd containment to reduce the risk of an outbreak or another surge).


David said calculations were done by assessing the risk level and economic impact of the pandemic.

“Sa ngayon kasi medyo mahirap maachieve yung 75 percent kasi hindi pa natin mababakunahan ang mga bata. That’s almost 30 percent tapos meron pang vaccine hesitancy,” he added.

(Right now it’s a bit difficult to achieve 75 percent because we can’t vaccinate children yet. That’s almost 30 percent and then there is still vaccine hesitancy).

David said 70 percent of vaccine doses should be allocated to NCR, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), and Central Luzon but the target is to vaccinate 50 percent of NCR’s population.

He said the same goes for other “perennial” high-risk areas, which include Baguio City, Tuguegarao City, Santiago City, and Cainta, Rizal.

“Tapos sa iba naman na medyo moderate-risk mga 40 percent ng population [ang ma-vaccinate]. Recommendation lang naman yan para ma-achieve yung herd containment dito sa moderately high-risk areas kasama na diyan ang Iloilo, Bacolod na emerging high-risk areas,” David further explained.

(Then other areas are relatively moderate-risk, about 40 percent of the population should be vaccinated. That is just a recommendation to achieve herd containment in moderately high-risk areas, including Iloilo, Bacolod, which are emerging high-risk areas).

David pointed out that herd containment can be possibly achieved this year.

“Kapag nagkaherd containment na tayo makakafully recover na tayo, almost back to old normal na tayo pag ganun,” he said.

(When we have herd containment, we can fully recover. We are almost back to the old normal then).