The low pressure area (LPA) east of Davao City has developed into tropical depression “Crising” on Thursday morning, May 13, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.
In its severe weather bulletin issued at 5 a.m., PAGASA estimated the location of Crising at 420 kilometers east of Davao City around 4 a.m.
It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 55 kph, while it is seen to move west at 15 kph.
Tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 is raised over Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and the eastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Prosperidad, San Francisco, Rosario, Bunawan, Trento, Santa Josefa, Veruela).
“Strong breeze to near-gale conditions is likely over the localities where tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 is in effect, especially in the coastal and mountainous areas of these localities,” PAGASA advised.
Likewise, moderate to heavy rains are expected over Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte in the next 24 hours.
“Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding including flash floods and rain-induced landslides are possible during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps,” PAGASA said.
“Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels,” it added.
Crising’s projected track and intensity
PAGASA said the tropical depression will move westward or west-northwestward and may make landfall over Surigao del Sur-Davao Oriental area between Thursday evening, May 13, and early Friday morning, May 14.
Although a slight intensification remains likely, Crising may remain as a tropical depression before landfall.
Throughout Friday, the tropical depression is seen to traverse the rugged landmass of Mindanao and may emerge over the Sulu Sea by early Saturday morning, May 15.
It may weaken into a remnant low by early Sunday morning, May 16, while passing over Palawan and dissipate shortly afterward.
However, due to the expected deterioration in the circulation of the tropical depression, while traversing Mindanao, PAGASA said there is also a possibility that “Crising” may weaken into a remnant low within the next 36 to 48 hours.