While the current forecast scenario favors the likelihood that tropical cyclone "Bising" (international name: "Surigae") may maintain its strength in the next 24 hours, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said there remains a possibility that the cyclone may reach super typhoon status during the same period.
In its severe weather bulletin issued at 11 p.m. on Saturday, April 17, PAGASA attributed the rapid intensification of Bising over the past 24 hours to the "favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions" over the Philippine Sea.
Bising is currently packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 265 kph.
PAGASA classifies a tropical cyclone as a super typhoon once the maximum wind speed exceeds 220 kph.
Tropical cyclone wind Signal No. 2 remains hoisted over Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Samar, as of 11 p.m.
Meanwhile, Signal No. 1 was raised over the eastern portion of Camarines Norte Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, northern portion of Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, and Surigao del Sur.
Based on the current forecast scenario, PAGASA said Signal No. 2 remains the highest level of wind signal that will be hoisted due to this typhoon.
However, in the event of a further eastward or westward shift in the current track forecast, the highest level of wind signal that will be hoisted for the typhoon may be lower or higher than the current scenario suggests, it added.
PAGASA said the rainbands of Bising will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Eastern Visayas and Bicol region by Sunday, April 18.
By Monday, April 19, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains will be experienced over Bicol region, Northern Samar, Samar, and Eastern Samar.
"Under these conditions, flooding, including flash floods, and rain-induced landslides are likely to occur especially in areas identified in hazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards," PAGASA warned.
Moreover, very rough to very high seas will be experienced over the northern and eastern seaboard of Eastern Visayas (with a wave height of 3.0 to 11.0 meters), rough to very high seas over the eastern seaboard of Luzon (2.5 to 10.0 m), and rough to very rough seas over the eastern seaboard of Caraga (3.0 to 5.0 m).
"Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters," PAGASA said.
Forecast track
As of 10 p.m., the center of the eye of typhoon Bising was located 395 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.
It is moving northwestward at 20 kph.
PAGASA said Bising will likely move northwestward over the Philippine Sea in the next 24 hours, then slow down by Sunday.
Beginning Sunday afternoon or evening, the typhoon may move generally northward, while further decelerating.
Based on the forecast track, PAGASA said that Bising will be closest to the Bicol region and Samar provinces between Sunday morning and Monday morning.
"Considering the uncertainty in the track forecast of the typhoon, a westward shift in the current forecast track may result in potentially significant impacts over the eastern portions of Southern Luzon and Visayas. The possibility of a landfall or close approach scenario is not ruled out," PAGASA pointed out.
Bising will likely be at 280 km east of Virac, Catanduanes by Sunday; 320 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 545 km east of Infanta, Quezon by Monday; 480 km east of Casiguran, Aurora by Tuesday, April 20; 460 km east of Aparri, Cagayan by Wednesday, April 21; and 535 km east of Basco, Batanes by Thursday afternoon, April 22.