The reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased to 1.23 in the past week, OCTA Research Group said Saturday, April 10.
“The reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 1.23 for the week of April 3 to 9, while the reproduction number in the entire Philippines was 1.27,” OCTA said in its latest report.
According to the research group, the reproduction number in Metro Manila was at 1.88 the week before imposition of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in NCR and nearby provinces of Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, and Laguna.
Researchers said that the average number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily in Metro Manila was 4,787 over the past week, with a one- week growth rate of -9 percent.
In their report, the group also noted that the NCR averaged 23,600 COVID-19 tests daily during such period, although the figure is 19 percent lower than the average during the week before ECQ.
The region’s positivity rate was also measured at 25 percent over the past week.
“Nevertheless, the ECQ has been effective in reducing the growth rate and reproduction number in the NCR. There is hope that the NCR will be on a downward trend by next week,” OCTA said.
Negative growth rates in some areas in NCR
OCTA’s latest monitoring report showed that negative one-week growth rates were observed in Pasay, Marikina, Mandaluyong, Taguig, Manila, Makati, Las Piñas, Valenzuela, and Quezon City.
“This is very encouraging, although it is too early to say if these LGUs are now starting on a downward trend, especially given that testing was 20 percent lower during the Holy Week,” experts said.
But the group pointed out that new COVID-19 infections in the metropolis will remain high, between 4,000 and 6,000 per day, while the reproduction number remains above 1.
“This means that hospitals in the NCR Plus will remain at high utilization in the coming weeks even with a downward trend expected soon, and many COVID-19 patients may not be able to obtain access to medical care,” they said.