Reproduction number in NCR down to 1.79 — OCTA

Published March 31, 2021, 12:39 PM

by Noreen Jazul

The reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has gone down to 1.79 from 2.04 since the reimplementation of the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) this week, the OCTA Research Group said on Wednesday (March 31).

Residents queue up to enter a market in Manila on March 28, 2021
(Photo by Jam STA ROSA / AFP / MANILA BULLETIN)

In an interview with DZRH, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said his team is expecting the reproduction number to further decrease by Easter Sunday (April 4).

However, David said OCTA doesn’t see the reproduction number hitting less than one by the end of the week which is why they are recommending a one-week extension of the ECQ.

“Effective yung ECQ…pero baka kailangan pa yung oras para mapababa pa yung reproduction number (The ECQ is effective…but I think the period is not enough to further bring down the reproduction number),” David told DZRH.

The expert, meanwhile, said they are expecting a drop in the number of cases this week due to the possible closures of testing centers.

“Maraming testing ceters ang magsasara. Ibig sabihin niyan, yung bilang ng mga kaso makikita natin baka biglang bumagsak sila (A lot of testing centers will close. That means, we will see a sudden decrease in the number of cases),” he said.

David said OCTA expects the number of COVID-19 cases to go down to 6,000 to 7,000 this week due to the closure of testing centers.

The expert reiterated that the possible decrease in cases this week should not be considered a reason to ease quarantine restrictions already.

 
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