One of President Duterte’s economic managers warned him that the Philippine economy, which saw growth before the lockdown in March 2020, was struggling. 

“We are struggling, Mr. President,” acting National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General and Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said during a meeting among the President’s Cabinet officials on Wednesday, March 25.

“Before the pandemic, our economy is strong. Now, we are in the yellow mark.”

“Ituloy lang po natin ‘yong risk management, ‘yong paggamit ng pondo nang maayos para tulungan ‘yong mga nasa --- na-affect ng pandemic, at ‘yong ating vaccination program ay mabilis natin ipairal (Let us continue with our risk management, use the funds to help those affected by the pandemic, and quickly enforce our vaccination program),” Chua said. 

But he also projected that the country’s economy will bounce back this year. He said that the projection for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will be at 6.5 percent. 

For now, he advised against putting NCR+ (National Capital Region, Cavite, Laguna, Bulacan, and Rizal) under stricter lockdowns because the economy will suffer.

The majority of the spike in the COVID-19 cases in the country came from Metro Manila and the four provinces. On Wednesday, March 25, the Department of Health (DOH) logged 6,666 positive cases.

“We need to continue managing risks as COVID cases rise. My recommendation po na tinanggap ng (accepted by the) IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force) is we focus on localized quarantine and we address the highest sources of risk so that ‘yong trabaho, ‘yong mga kita tuloy-tuloy po (the jobs will continue),” Chua told Duterte. 

Chua defended the recommendation against those calling for a stricter lockdown in NCR+. 

“When we opened the economy last October 12, we did not see a spike in cases. In fact, (it’s) on a general downtrend,” he said, adding that even during the holiday season in December, there was no surge of COVID-19 cases. 

He attributed this to “strict compliance with the health standards and a gradual and careful approach to opening. 

“Pero ‘pag mahigpit po iyong ating quarantine tulad nang nangyari in the last year, marami pong mawawalan ng trabaho (If we get stricter with our quarantine like last year, many will lose their jobs),” Chua emphasized. 

The lockdown, which is the longest in the world, last year caused the economy to dip from green (January to March 2020). 

It only turned to “pink” again when some regions were put under moderate general community quarantine (MGCQ), the least restrictive community quarantine in the country. 

During his presentation to the Cabinet, Chua used the color green to mark a healthy economy and the color red to show losses in the country’s GDP and other economic parameters. 

He said from mid-March until early May last year, the country was in the “red” area but it soon turned to “pink” in July and August when the NCR was put under the stricter general community quarantine (GCQ). 

The rest of the country, particularly Central Luzon and Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon Province), which were put under MGCQ, the economy turned “yellow” signaling a projection to return to “green.”

Chua reminded the Cabinet that the NCR alone represents 32 percent of the national economy and Calabarzon and Central Luzon have a combined contribution of 26 percent.

Locking it down will have a “huge impact” on the economy, Chua said, adding that the country lost P2.8 billion every day last year while under lockdown.