The reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila has dropped to 1.91, according to the latest report of OCTA Research group.

But the researchers noted that it is still too early to tell if the decrease in the reproduction rate is the start of a downward trend in the spread of infection in the National Capital Region (NCR).

In its report issued Thursday, March 25, the reproduction number or the estimated number of people that a COVID-19 positive individual can infect in NCR has decreased to 1.91 from 1.99, as of March 24.

“It is too early to tell if this is the beginning of a hoped-for downward trend in the reproduction number, given that the NCR was placed under the GCQ (general community quarantine) bubble,” OCTA said.

The researchers noted that the number of new COVID-19 cases in the metropolis averaged at 3,804 per day over the past week, which is an increase of 61 percent compared to the previous week.

Based on its report, the daily attack rate in NCR increased to 27.2 per 100,000 of the population, which classifies the region under “high risk” classification.

Meanwhile, the positivity rate in NCR was measured at 18 percent over the past week, exceeding the standard of five percent set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

ICU occupancy above critical level

Experts also raised alarm over the intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy of hospitals in NCR, saying that it already exceeded the critical level at 71 percent, while hospital bed occupancy has increased to 61 percent.

On the other hand, OCTA said bed occupancy in the NCR for non-COVID patients was at 59 percent while ICU occupancy was at 44 percent.