The Philippines could have up to 10,000 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) per day by the end of March if the current trend remains, a member of an independent research group said Saturday, March 20.

OCTA Research chief Prof. Guido David has also estimated that new cases of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) could hit up to 5,000 cases by end of March.

“We’re likely going to see 5,000 cases in NCR alone by end of the month, and at least mga 10,000 cases sa buong Pilipinas (in the entire Philippines) by end of the month,” David said in an interview over ABS CBN’s TeleRadyo.

The research fellow noted that the reproduction number — or the average number of persons who may be infected by one COVID-19 positive individual — in Metro Manila was measured at around 1.95, and 1.68 for the entire country.

“The reality is medyo kinukulangan na tayo sa oras kasi ‘yung projections natin (we are a bit short on time because our projections) 10,000 cases by the end of the month,” he said.

“Mukhang posible talaga aabutan ‘yun kung walang significant changes sa trend na mangyari (It seems possible that it will be reached if there are no significant changes in the trend),” he added.

The Philippines reported on March 19 its highest number of new COVID-19 cases since the start pandemic last year, with 7,103 new infections, which brought the nationwide tally of confirmed cases to 648,066.

‘Looming health crisis’

“We have a looming public health crisis kasi based sa mga projections natin, 'yung hospitals baka mapuno sila in two weeks sa NCR and kung four weeks pa natin bago mapababa yung cases, even with interventions, magkakaroon tayo ng public health crisis (We have a looming public health crisis because based on our projections, the hospitals may fill up in two weeks in NCR and if it would take us four more weeks to lower the cases, even with interventions, we will have a public health crisis,” David warned.

Some hospitals in Metro Manila have already reached their bed capacity following the surge of infections recently.

The research group estimated that bed occupancy for COVID-19 patients in Metro Manila may reach 80 percent capacity by first week of April if the current trend continues, and the bed capacity will not increase.

Revisit policies

David has also urged the government to revisit the policies it implemented to arrest the rising number of COVID-19 cases in the country, particularly protocols for churches as the Holy Week approaches.

“Pero ‘yung in terms of numbers, itong record-breaking number natin hindi pa ito ‘yung huli. In fact una pa lang to sa record breaking, sad to say (But in terms of numbers, this record-breaking number of ours is not the last. In fact this is just the first of the record breaking, sad to say),” he said.

“I mean, ayaw nating mangyari ‘yan pero iyan ‘yung katutuhanan kasi may momentum ‘yung trend, ‘yung pandemic right now and mahirap pigilan ‘yung momentum (we don’t want that to happen but that’s the truth because the trend, the pandemic right now has momentum, and it’s hard to stop the momentum) especially at this level na we’re getting 7,000 cases, 3,800 in Metro Manila,” he added.

OCTA has proposed the implementation of a “circuit breaker” lockdown, either a “hard” general community quarantine (GCQ) or “soft” modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ), to curb the surge of COVID-19 cases in the country.