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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PH COVID reproduction number now at 2.03; daily cases may reach up to 11,000 by end of March -- OCTA Research

PH COVID reproduction number now at 2.03; daily cases may reach up to 11,000 by end of March -- OCTA Research

Published Mar 16, 2021 11:36 am

The country's coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reproduction number has reached 2.03, which means more people are being infected, OCTA Research chief Prof. Guido David said on Tuesday, March 16.

(Zaldy Comanda / MANILA BULLETIN)

"We are actually seeing an upward trend. In fact the reproduction number has increased to 2.03. It is now above 2 and what that means is we have to recalculate again the trends," David said in an ANC interview.

The OCTA Research Team's original projection over the weekend showed that the country may have 8,000 to 9,000 daily cases of COVID-19 by end of March if the current reproduction number of 1.9 is maintained.

"The numbers that we mentioned, 8,000 to 9,000, they have now been up to about 10,000 to 11,000 by the end of this month (March)," David said.

The Department of Health on Monday, March 15 reported a total of 5,404 new COVID-19 infections, the highest so far in 2021.

David noted that the "outbreak" that started in some communities in Pasay City, Malabon City, and Navotas City "has now spread to many areas of NCR (National Capital Region)."

"Most of NCR is now undergoing increase in new cases. (While) in Pasay, Malabon and Navotas, (cases) are now actually slowing down," he said.

David also observed that the increase in new COVID-19 cases is "not just happening in NCR but is also happening in many areas in Calabarzon, like Rizal and Cavite, (and) parts of Bulacan."

A "slight uptick" was also noted in Cebu City.

"It was going down but now we are seeing a slight uptick so we will continue to monitor that. But most areas in NCR are now having an increase and many areas are nearing close to the level that we saw (during a surge) last August (2020)," he added.

David attributed the faster spread of the disease to increased mobility and decreased compliance with minimum public health protocols.

"More people outdoors are not complying with the guidelines like wearing of face masks, or not strictly complying with them. More social gatherings are (also) occurring," he said.

The increase in the number of cases, David said, can be also attributed "in part at least to the presence of several variants (of COVID-19)."

"Current data shows that the prevalence is maybe 10 percent but this could change very quickly soon because what we noticed in the UK, initially I think it was in November last year, the presence of the variants was about 10 percent but in one month it increased to about 50 percent. This is how fast the variants can invade the previous variants that are spreading in the region," he explained.

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