The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised tropical cyclone wind signal warning over parts of Mindanao as tropical storm “Auring” further intensify while slowly moving west towards the country late Thursday, Feb. 18.
In its 11 p.m. severe weather bulletin, PAGASA hoisted signal number 1 over Davao Oriental and the eastern portion of Davao de Oro (Pantukan, Maragusan, Compostela, New Bataan).
With this, winds of about 30-60 kilometers-per-hour (kph) with intermittent rains may be expected in said areas within 36 hours.
PAGASA said more localities in Caraga and Davao Region may be placed under storm signal, noting that the highest level of wind signal that will be issued throughout the passage of Auring is signal number 2
The center of Auring was last observed at 605 km East of Hinatuan town, Surigao del Sur, packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph while slowly moving westward.
The state-run weather agency said Auring is forecast to further intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 48 hours, and is expected to make landfall over Caraga region on Sunday, Feb 21.
“On the forecast track, the storm will likely follow a generally northwestward path as it traverses Caraga Region, Visayas, and Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan) on Sunday and Monday, Feb. 22,” PAGASA said.
Auring will move generally westward over the next 24 hours before changing direction northwest, and while gradually accelerating by Friday evening or Saturday morning.
Based on PAGASA’s forecast track, Auring will be 430 km East Southeast of Hinatuan by Friday night, and will further move inland at 215 km East of Hinatuan by Saturday night
By Sunday evening, Auring will 110 km East Southeast of Roxas City, Capiz, and, by Monday night, it will be 70 kms North Northwest of Coron, Palawan.
By Tuesday, Auring is 275 kms West Southwest of Subic Bay.
While Auring is still far from Mindanao as of Thursday night, PAGASA said the storms trough may already bring scattered thunderstorms over Caraga and Davao Region on Friday.
By Saturday, Feb. 20, residents of Caraga Region, Davao Oriental, and Davao de Oro may experience moderate to heavy with at times intense rains.
Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rains may be experienced in Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, and Davao del Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, the rest of Northern Mindanao, Northern Samar, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, and Davao City in the next 48 hours.
Under such conditions, state meteorologists warned that scattered to widespread flooding, including flashfloods, and rain-induced landslides may likely occur during heavy rains or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to such hazards.
Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels, it added.
In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas with waves of up to 6.5 meters (m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao, while rough to very rough seas are also expected over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m), Southern Luzon (4.0 to 5.5 m), and Visayas (3.5 to 6.0 m).
“Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters,” PAGASA said.