Tropical storm “Auring” has further gained strength and reached severe tropical storm intensity on Friday, Feb. 19, as it moves slowly over Philippine Sea east of Mindanao, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

In its 11 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA said Auring became stronger packing maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 115 kph while moving southwest slowly.

As of 10 a.m. Friday, the center of Auring was last observed at 535 kilometers (km) East Southeast of Hinatuan town, Surigao del Sur, and is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday morning, Feb. 21.

However, the state weather bureau noted that the possibility of Auring reaching typhoon-level intensity within the forecast period remain to be “less likely.”

“‘Auring’ will likely weaken while crossing the archipelago due to significant terrain interaction and dry air intrusion from the Northeast Monsoon,” it said.

Based on PAGASA’s forecast, light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers may be experienced over Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte on Friday until Saturday afternoon.

From Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning, heavy to intense rains may be experienced in the Caraga Region, while moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Eastern Visayas, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, and Davao de Oro.

“Ito na yung pinaka crucial point natin kasi basi sa ating forecast track, ito na yung time na pinakamalapit ito sa kalupaan (This will be the most crucial point because based on our forecast track, this is the time when is closest to the mainland),” said weather specialist Raymond Ordinario.

Moreover, light to moderate with at times heavy rains may be experienced over the rest of Visayas, the rest of Northern Mindanao, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, Masbate, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, and Davao City.

Tropical cyclone wind signal (TCWS) number 1 has been raised over Davao Oriental, the eastern portion of Davao de Oro (Pantukan, Maragusan, New Bataan, Compostela, Monkayo), the eastern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Talacogon, San Francisco, Rosario, Bunawan, Santa Josefa, Trento), and Surigao del Sur.

“Based on current meteorological data, the highest level of wind signal that will be issued throughout the passage of ‘Auring’ is TCWS #2, for potentially damaging gale-force to storm-force winds,” PAGASA said.

It noted that more localities in Caraga and Davao Region may be placed under storm signal warning in the next bulletin.

Auring is forecast to move generally westward or west-southwestward slowly over the next 24 hours before turning northwestward Saturday morning while accelerating.

“On the forecast track, the storm will likely follow a generally northwestward path as it traverses Caraga Region, Visayas, and Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan) region on Sunday and Monday,” PAGASA said.

Ordinario said Auring will remain inside the country’s area of responsibility until Wednesday. By that day, Auring is estimated to be in the West Philippine Sea at 365 km West of Subic, Zambales.