Some parts of the country may continue to experience above average rainfall due to the possible lingering effects of La Niña until March, based on the latest climate outlook of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
“Between February to June, the dry season we see is relatively short because rainfall distribution may extend until February and March. Generally, March and April will only be our dry season, if we look at PAGASA’s rainfall forecast,” said Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA’s chief of climate monitoring and prediction section.
Filipinos’ so-called “summer” months March, April, and May are officially referred to by PAGASA as dry and hot months.
During the recent climate outlook forum of the PAGASA, Solis said the mature stage of La Niña has been reached in November-December 2020.
La Niña conditions have been gradually returning to ENSO-neutral condition–where there is neither La Niña nor El Niño–from January to February 2021.
Solis noted, however, that the lingering effects of La Niña may still be present during the February-March-April season.
Based on the PAGASA’s latest rainfall forecast, February will have “generally near to above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country except for the western and central parts of Luzon where below normal rainfall conditions are likely.”
Twenty-seven provinces will likely to experience above normal rainfall this month.
Solis said it may still be rainy in some parts of the country in March because of the remnants of La Niña.
By March, mostly above normal rainfall conditions in the country are expected with some areas in Luzon that may likely experience below to near normal rainfall conditions, PAGASA said. There are 69 provinces that may receive above normal rainfall next month.
By April, one province may experience above normal rainfall conditions, while 53 provinces will likely to have near normal rainfall. Generally below normal rainfall conditions in Luzon while near normal rainfall over most parts of Visayas and Mindanao is expected, PAGASA said.
Solis explained that rains will gradually become more prevalent in the western section of the country towards the “last portion of May to first half of June” during the onset of rainy season.