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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider Diokno sees economy improving

Diokno sees economy improving

Published Sep 12, 2020 05:00 am

Counters SWS  survey

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno ( Bloomberg file photo)

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said contrary to the latest survey results, the domestic economy is on a recovery path especially with the easing of lockdowns and gradual resumption of business operations.

 “Let me assure everyone that based on immediate past, nowcast, and forecast data, the Philippines is now on its way to recovery. Hence, the economy would be in a better -- not worse-- shape 12 months from now,” said Diokno. He made the comments Friday after the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Survey indicated that 40 percent of Filipinos think the economic condition will turn for the worse in the next 12 months.

 “The SWS survey is based on perception of 2,000 adults. I cannot imagine how the economy will be worse off 12 months from now,  coming from a record- breaking contraction in the second quarter of 2020, owing to the total lockdown in March, April and May,” said Diokno.

He said the economy is now being opened up and businesses are slowly restarting operations since June. “In the third quarter, the government has opened the economy gradually, let part of business activity to resume, and allowed more transport to operate.”

Diokno is confident that the economy “will be more open in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter (and) more open in the first quarter 2021 than in the fourth quarter 2020, and so on.”

 “So it boggles my mind how the economy will be worse 12 months from now,” he said. “The virus infection rate has started to flatten, ‘R naught’ is now below ‘1’, and the government has shifted from general lockdown to granular or localized lockdown.” “R naught” is a measure of how far an infectious disease has spread.

Diokno said the economic condition has in fact improved. “We're in better shape now than we were three months ago. Based on available information, I truly believe that worst is behind us.”

 “Repeat: the SWS survey is based on perception by a limited number of adults with limited information,” he added.

The SWS survey said 40 percent of Filipinos or two out of five said the economy will get worse while 24 percent think it will stay as is which is in recession. Another 30 percent believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months.

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the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Department of Finance
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