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Manila Bulletin devider Opinion devider Numbers simplified

Numbers simplified

Published Aug 31, 2020 04:22 pm

MEDIUM RARE

Jullie Y. Daza

When the numbers are so massive they numb (as in number?) the mind, how does one read the story behind the figures?

Luckily for us, there are numerate people like ABS-CBN’s Edson Guido, chief of data analytics. The world is divided according to numerate persons who think in numbers and literate persons who are well-read. The numerate are of a higher species because they are also literate. Thanks to Edson’s love for mathematics and his ability to translate numbers into laymen’s non-numerate language, we are able to take some of the weight off those daily COVID-19 reports from DOH.

Edson, ABS-CBN’s brightest new star – thank ABS for letting him share the science -- broke up chunks and chunks of those numbers just before the NCR locked in for another long weekend. He noted that we ended July with 100,000 confirmed cases. In August we exceeded 200,000, at 4,000 a day from Aug. 15-28 and 6,000 on a few other days. What’s alarming is that the number of deaths has been rising, from 56 a day to almost 100. There’s been a “slight improvement” in the positivity rate, from 13% to 11%, still way above WHO’s 5%.

The PH rate of infection is 1,900 per 1 million. While contact tracing and testing centers have been ramped up considerably, Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong, aka contact tracing czar, complains that “there’s still no app for contact tracing” that Edson describes as “data-driven and works like Waze telling you not only who you are but also where you went.” After six months we still can’t afford that app? (Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte bewails how QC has been confused with Quezon province in the tracing.)

What aren’t we doing right? We’re ahead of Indonesia in the number of infections. Thailand and Malaysia have kept their numbers low (3,000 and 9,000, respectively). Remember the “plane always late” joke of old? In the time of coronavirus, we were late in testing and contact tracing; delays, backlogs, supplies shortages bedeviled our collection of data.

Edson’s good news: Last week bed occupancy in the National Capital Region (68%) got out of the danger zone while Region 7 was at 29%, congratulations! Region 6 was at 45% but they sorely lack medical workers.

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Jullie Y. Daza
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