Let's keep the ball – It's 2021
Published Dec 30, 2020 11:00 pm
OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT
Diwa C. Guinigundo
Heard over the morning edition of the National Public Radio last December 28, Patti Neighmond wrote an extremely informative article “Still Disinfecting Surfaces? It Might Not be Worth It.” It was unquestionably refreshing to know we are learning more of our unseen enemy called the coronavirus. With more information about its transmission, it looks like scrubbing and disinfecting might not be absolutely necessary. The virus is not that infectious when it comes to touching surfaces where only viral RNA or “the corpse of the virus” reposes. Coronavirus is a fragile enemy. Surface contamination is not a potent means of getting COVID-19. Breathing it in from the air is “the most important route of transmission.”
That tale of scrubbing and disinfecting surfaces from door handles, to packages and groceries with disinfectant originated in “pristine lab conditions using much larger amounts of virus than would be found in real-life scenario.”
Policy-wise and public habit-wise, this new understanding ushers in a great awakening that even without the vaccine, the Philippines does not have to be hopeless. We should focus more on cleaning the air “given the finite amount of time and resources,” avoid doing activities in indoor public places or, if unavoidable, ensure proper ventilation and use of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation. Wearing of the usual face masks and face shields remains a potent means of stopping viral spread.
As we transition to the new year 2021, these new insights should provide additional source of optimism and confidence in our effort to neutralize the pandemic and strengthen economic activities.
But in 2020, somebody dropped the ball several times.
First, somebody failed to strengthen Philippine public health in the long period he was in charge of the health sector. Next, he opposed restricting travel from Wuhan even if there were yet no confirmed cases of the virus. Lately, he opposed restricting travel from UK where a new strain has been reported. Thankfully, the IATF took a more pro-active approach starting December 29 by restricting travel from all suspected origins of the new strain and surge. Preemptive measures appear foreign to our risk management system as a nation. Let us not replicate this in 2021.
We need to do full-court press next year when it comes to fiscal and monetary policies. Since 2021 is a very critical year, we need to show our ability to bounce back. We should take the initiative to dictate the tempo of our fight against the virus and its impact on both business and consumer confidence. This Government which started well in 2016 should exhibit its capacity to win. Winning key legislative victories before the last quarter of the game should give momentum as well as drive to reverse the tide. Mobility indicators of Google, Apple, and Waze have to recover from the negative region for most of the year 2020.
Let us force a turn over.
The new learning from a year of fighting the enemy with the game-changing MVP (My Vaccine Protection) benched should prepare us for a bigger battle. The efficacy of vaccines has yet to gel in the public psyche. Popularizing the common sense of our new learning could very well change the dynamics of the game.
This should be the policy context of government. This should be the spending and investment context of consumers and business entities.
We need to accelerate public spending on infra, social and economic support as authorized by the recently signed 2021 National Budget. The budget is not certainly perfect. It harbors big potential for fund diversion. But that should not prevent us from maximizing public compensatory demand management. The corporates will be mostly benefited by the recent reduction in corporate income tax. We should therefore expect more from businessmen to continue their activities, knowing that unless they invest and employ people, the economy might remain in recession or stagnant at best.
The fiscal package for COVID-19 has been quoted at P595.6 billion or around 3.1 percent of GDP, certainly one of the lowest in the region and the world, but this should be no excuse for sub-optimal spending. The IMF and some investment analysts have questioned the size of the package and argued that “a bigger rescue plan could have gone a long way to help preserve the fast-fading growth potential.” We maintain that short of that, the local Ombudsman and Internal Audit Offices of all public agencies with something to do with infrastructure and other similar public spending projects should ensure that fund diversions are completely avoided. We may have a smaller team and shallow bench, but if every player among the five in the court performs at his peak, we can certainly do a full-court press and force a turnover.
Our economic managers have shown sobriety. The converse of a higher fiscal package would be higher levels of indebtedness in the middle of economic recession when public revenues are not expected to shoot up like it is the height of summer. After all, other non-direct fiscal support has been provided by other sectors of government, not the least of which is the monetary authority.
Unlike their fiscal counterparts, our central bankers have done enough. They have sent the BSP’s policy rates well into the negative territory, especially in the face of rising inflation. They have injected the economy with excess liquidity through its own open market operations and lending to the National Government. Banks are happy with reduced required reserves and depositing their freed, loanable funds back with the BSP. Yet, loans by the banks remain weak. Next year should see the BSP keeping its accommodative approach steady for any eventuality. A reversal of policy stance might be necessary, especially wheneveryone is forecasting what the other fellow is seeing. We desire herd immunity, not herd mentality.
As we wrote several times in the past, there are other forms of dropping the game. We don’t fight more than one enemy at a time. Red-tagging pursuant to the anti-terror bill is one example. The recent freezing of bank accounts of CPP-NPA is another. How one proposes to do this escapes me. Certainly, both organizations would have failed KYC policy of banks. Freezing the deposits of “suspected” front organizations is equally problematic. What would be the basis for the AMLC action? Naming and shaming of members of Congress could be counter-productive, if without proof.
We also need integrity in public service to strengthen public support and confidence in the future of this country. Vaccines are public goods. Their distribution should be templated beyond saying “Huwag n’yo naman pong ipagkait sa ating mga sundalo kung magkaroon sila ng proteksyon.” Our health frontliners should have received the vaccines first. Extending logic when there is none would end up more than illogical. The presidential spokesperson argued that vaccination is only token, and being token is allowed especially during the holidays. After all, being token, they are only of little value. “I don’t think it’s of much value anyway.”
We hope this Administration will not spend its last one and a half years putting little value to saving life. A game can only be won if nobody drops the ball. But if more than one player drops the ball with increasing frequency, we need more prayers for our country and people.
May God have mercy on us this 2021.
Diwa C. Guinigundo
Heard over the morning edition of the National Public Radio last December 28, Patti Neighmond wrote an extremely informative article “Still Disinfecting Surfaces? It Might Not be Worth It.” It was unquestionably refreshing to know we are learning more of our unseen enemy called the coronavirus. With more information about its transmission, it looks like scrubbing and disinfecting might not be absolutely necessary. The virus is not that infectious when it comes to touching surfaces where only viral RNA or “the corpse of the virus” reposes. Coronavirus is a fragile enemy. Surface contamination is not a potent means of getting COVID-19. Breathing it in from the air is “the most important route of transmission.”
That tale of scrubbing and disinfecting surfaces from door handles, to packages and groceries with disinfectant originated in “pristine lab conditions using much larger amounts of virus than would be found in real-life scenario.”
Policy-wise and public habit-wise, this new understanding ushers in a great awakening that even without the vaccine, the Philippines does not have to be hopeless. We should focus more on cleaning the air “given the finite amount of time and resources,” avoid doing activities in indoor public places or, if unavoidable, ensure proper ventilation and use of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation. Wearing of the usual face masks and face shields remains a potent means of stopping viral spread.
As we transition to the new year 2021, these new insights should provide additional source of optimism and confidence in our effort to neutralize the pandemic and strengthen economic activities.
But in 2020, somebody dropped the ball several times.
First, somebody failed to strengthen Philippine public health in the long period he was in charge of the health sector. Next, he opposed restricting travel from Wuhan even if there were yet no confirmed cases of the virus. Lately, he opposed restricting travel from UK where a new strain has been reported. Thankfully, the IATF took a more pro-active approach starting December 29 by restricting travel from all suspected origins of the new strain and surge. Preemptive measures appear foreign to our risk management system as a nation. Let us not replicate this in 2021.
We need to do full-court press next year when it comes to fiscal and monetary policies. Since 2021 is a very critical year, we need to show our ability to bounce back. We should take the initiative to dictate the tempo of our fight against the virus and its impact on both business and consumer confidence. This Government which started well in 2016 should exhibit its capacity to win. Winning key legislative victories before the last quarter of the game should give momentum as well as drive to reverse the tide. Mobility indicators of Google, Apple, and Waze have to recover from the negative region for most of the year 2020.
Let us force a turn over.
The new learning from a year of fighting the enemy with the game-changing MVP (My Vaccine Protection) benched should prepare us for a bigger battle. The efficacy of vaccines has yet to gel in the public psyche. Popularizing the common sense of our new learning could very well change the dynamics of the game.
This should be the policy context of government. This should be the spending and investment context of consumers and business entities.
We need to accelerate public spending on infra, social and economic support as authorized by the recently signed 2021 National Budget. The budget is not certainly perfect. It harbors big potential for fund diversion. But that should not prevent us from maximizing public compensatory demand management. The corporates will be mostly benefited by the recent reduction in corporate income tax. We should therefore expect more from businessmen to continue their activities, knowing that unless they invest and employ people, the economy might remain in recession or stagnant at best.
The fiscal package for COVID-19 has been quoted at P595.6 billion or around 3.1 percent of GDP, certainly one of the lowest in the region and the world, but this should be no excuse for sub-optimal spending. The IMF and some investment analysts have questioned the size of the package and argued that “a bigger rescue plan could have gone a long way to help preserve the fast-fading growth potential.” We maintain that short of that, the local Ombudsman and Internal Audit Offices of all public agencies with something to do with infrastructure and other similar public spending projects should ensure that fund diversions are completely avoided. We may have a smaller team and shallow bench, but if every player among the five in the court performs at his peak, we can certainly do a full-court press and force a turnover.
Our economic managers have shown sobriety. The converse of a higher fiscal package would be higher levels of indebtedness in the middle of economic recession when public revenues are not expected to shoot up like it is the height of summer. After all, other non-direct fiscal support has been provided by other sectors of government, not the least of which is the monetary authority.
Unlike their fiscal counterparts, our central bankers have done enough. They have sent the BSP’s policy rates well into the negative territory, especially in the face of rising inflation. They have injected the economy with excess liquidity through its own open market operations and lending to the National Government. Banks are happy with reduced required reserves and depositing their freed, loanable funds back with the BSP. Yet, loans by the banks remain weak. Next year should see the BSP keeping its accommodative approach steady for any eventuality. A reversal of policy stance might be necessary, especially wheneveryone is forecasting what the other fellow is seeing. We desire herd immunity, not herd mentality.
As we wrote several times in the past, there are other forms of dropping the game. We don’t fight more than one enemy at a time. Red-tagging pursuant to the anti-terror bill is one example. The recent freezing of bank accounts of CPP-NPA is another. How one proposes to do this escapes me. Certainly, both organizations would have failed KYC policy of banks. Freezing the deposits of “suspected” front organizations is equally problematic. What would be the basis for the AMLC action? Naming and shaming of members of Congress could be counter-productive, if without proof.
We also need integrity in public service to strengthen public support and confidence in the future of this country. Vaccines are public goods. Their distribution should be templated beyond saying “Huwag n’yo naman pong ipagkait sa ating mga sundalo kung magkaroon sila ng proteksyon.” Our health frontliners should have received the vaccines first. Extending logic when there is none would end up more than illogical. The presidential spokesperson argued that vaccination is only token, and being token is allowed especially during the holidays. After all, being token, they are only of little value. “I don’t think it’s of much value anyway.”
We hope this Administration will not spend its last one and a half years putting little value to saving life. A game can only be won if nobody drops the ball. But if more than one player drops the ball with increasing frequency, we need more prayers for our country and people.
May God have mercy on us this 2021.