Cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country could reach up to half a million by the end of the year or at the start of 2021 should the current increasing trend continues, the OCTA Research Team said on Wednesday.

In a virtual Laging Handa briefing, Dr. Butch Ong of OCTA added that with the current reproduction number in Metro Manila, cases in the region might reach an average of 3,000 to 4,000 a day.

"It is still possible talaga na magkaroon ng 500,000 cases by the end of December or at the start of January. Yung curve na nakikita namin ngayon sa mga number of cases, steadily paakyat talaga. Pagdating ng second week of December may uptick na kaya tumaas talaga ang reproduction number," Ong said.

(It is still possible that we may reach 500,000 cases by the end of December or at the start of January. The curve that we are now seeing in the number of cases is really increasing. There is an uptick in the number of cases starting the second week of December so there is really a spike in the reproduction number.)

In the latest monitoring report of OCTA, it noted that the reproduction number or "r-naught" in the capital region significantly rose in the past week from 1.06 to 1.15 -- the highest recorded for the last two months.

"The r-naught in the NCR has been over 1 for more than a week and continues to rise. This means there is a higher risk of the virus spreading exponentially in Metro Manila," the group explained. 

Areas of concern

The team also identified eight provinces as areas of concern which means there is a high number of cases recorded daily, a high attack rate, and a high hospital occupancy in their communities.

These include the NCR, Rizal, Bulacan, Isabela, Leyte, Pangasinan, South Cotabato, and Negros Oriental. NCR remains to be the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic with at least 428 daily new cases from Dec. 13 to 19, higher than the 370 recorded from Dec. 6 to 12.

Meanwhile, 14 local government units (LGUs) were also listed as areas of concern, namely Makati, San Juan, Marikina, Quezon City, Malabon, Taguig, Santiago and Ilagan in Isabela, Baguio City and La Trinidad in Benguet, Cainta in Rizal, Batangas City, and Ormoc and Tacloban in Leyte.

Implement interventions

While experts from OCTA said that the surge in NCR is at the "early stages," combined efforts from the government and the public could still make it go lower and prevent from reaching the "critical level" of 4,000 daily new cases.

Professor Guido David, also an OCTA Research fellow,  said local officials in these areas of concern should further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing, and isolation to reverse the increase in transmissions in their communities.

LGUs were also urged to implement more aggressive and effective localized lockdowns with stricter border controls to suppress further viral transmissions.

Aside from these, David said that the main intervention to reverse the increasing trend in COVID-19 cases particularly in Metro Manila is for the citizens to strictly observe the minimum health standards set by the Department of Health.

"Kailangan talaga dito ang cooperation ng mga tao. Kailangan ang social distancing, wearing of face masks and face shield, limit mass gatherings -- kailangan natin lahat iyan para mapababa ulit ang cases," David explained.

(We really need the cooperation of the public. There should be social distancing, wearing of face masks and face shield, limit mass gatherings -- we need these to lower the cases again.)

Ong also backed David's statement, adding that to control the transmission of the virus, the public must remain vigilant especially this holiday season when the movement of people increases.

"We must be vigilant and aware of our mobility. Kapag tayo ay lilipat sa ibang lugar lalo na ngayong kapaskuhan, let us be aware na maaari nating madala ang virus or maaari tayong mahawa," Ong said.

The group has been urging the public to avoid crowded and enclosed areas, as well as to refrain from joining social gatherings this Christmas season to further avoid the risk of transmission of the virus.

"While we must and we will celebrate Christmas, we should do so safely and responsibly, not just to ensure our own safety and wellbeing, but that of our families and our community," OCTA said.

"During this new normal Christmas, we must all continue our vigilance and be mindful, never to be complacent and overconfident as the virus is still here and is very much a clear and present danger to us all," it added.

The OCTA team is an independent and interdisciplinary research group that has been monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines. It is composed of UP faculty members and alumni with contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College, USA.