Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) surveys showed consumer and business sentiments are improving with the resumption of economic activity – despite still being limited – and other developments in the fight against COVID-19 outbreak.

The BSP’s Business Expectations Survey (BES) for the fourth quarter reported a positive business confidence index (CI) of 10.6 percent versus -5.3 percent in the third quarter.

The survey respondents’ optimism was due to the following: reopening of businesses and adapting to the “new normal”; easing of community quarantines nationwide; seasonal factors such as uptick in demand during the holiday season and start of milling season; and increase in volume of sales and orders.

The positive sentiment extends to the first quarter of 2021, said the BSP, with a CI of 37.4 percent compared to 16.8 percent in the previous quarter.

“(The) more buoyant outlook for the first quarter 2021 was associated mainly with expectations of the reopening of firms and adapting to the ‘new normal’, the gradual recovery from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, particularly with the anticipated availability of the vaccine,” noted the BSP. The positive outlook also stems from the easing of the quarantine restrictions and the increase in sales and orders.

The business outlook on the state of the economy is also more optimistic for the next 12 months, said the BSP, with a CI of 57.7 percent from 37.5 percent in the previous survey.

As for consumer sentiment, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is “less pessimistic” for the fourth quarter and even turned positive for the next quarter, or the first quarter of 2021 as well as remaining optimistic for the next 12 months.

The CES showed a CI of -47.9 percent in the fourth quarter from -54.5 percent in the previous quarter.

“Their improved outlook was brought about by their expectations of: availability of more jobs and permanent employment; additional and high income; effective government policies and programs such as the Social Amelioration Program (SAP) and the Plant, Plant, Plant Program; and less community restrictions, reopening of businesses and end to COVID-19 pandemic,” said the BSP.

For next quarter, the CES’ CI reverted to positive territory at 4.3 percent from -4.1 percent. Consumers cited their anticipation of more jobs and more working family members as one of the positive factors, as well as additional and high income, re-opening of businesses and and the COVID-19 vaccine.

Consumers’ outlook for the next 12 months also remained optimistic, said the BSP, with a CI of 23.6 percent, slightly lower than 25.5 percent previously.

Consumers’ spending outlook for next quarter is still low, based on the survey. “The households’ spending outlook index on basic goods and services was unchanged at 26.4 percent for the first quarter 2021, still the lowest CI recorded since the start of the nationwide survey in the first quarter 2007,” said the BSP.

On the other hand, the percentage of households with savings for the last quarter this year is slightly higher. The percentage of households with savings was at 25 percent from 24.7 percent in the last survey. “The slight increase in the number of savers was mainly due to the higher number of households with savings in the high- and middle-income groups counterbalancing the decline in the number of savers in the low-income group,” said the BSP.