Experts monitoring the pandemic situation in the country said COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may reach a peak of 500,000 by year’s end, should the rate of transmission continue to rise.

In its latest monitoring report, the OCTA Research Team said an estimate of at least 470,000 up to 500,000 total cases are expected by Dec. 31, based on the current COVID-19 trend in the country.

“The lower range assumes that the current trends, which are still good, continue, but the upper range of getting 500,000 means the curve is already unflattering or we are restarting on an upward trend,” Dr. Guido David, an OCTA Research fellow explained.

Based on the group’s report, it showed that the reproduction number of cases in the Philippines increased to 0.88 from Nov. 22 to 28, from the previous 0.85 recorded from Nov. 14 to 20.

Despite this slight increase, the research team emphasized that the reproduction rate is still below 1, which indicated a downward trend in the new cases.

According to David, it is still uncertain if the current “uptick” in the number of new cases in the country in the past weeks will further increase or will start to go down due to several factors affecting the country’s testing capacity.

“We don’t want to sound the alarm immediately. It could be due to the recent evacuations because of the typhoons or na-delay ang testing dahil sarado ang mga laboratories. Puwede rin na dahil sa holiday rush nag-increase ang mobility kaya dumadami ang bilang ng kaso,” David, who is also a professor at the University of the Philippines (UP), added.

(We don’t want to sound the alarm immediately. It could be due to the recent evacuations because of the typhoons or the delay in testing because laboratories are closed. It is also possible that it is due to the holiday rush, which has increased mobility of people, thus the rising number of cases.)

David emphasized, however, that the public should now become cautious about whether or not the uptick in the number of cases will continue in the coming weeks.

UP Professor Ranjit Rye, also a member of the research group, echoed the statement of David, adding that the public should not be complacent to prevent another surge in COVID-19 cases.

“Kung lalabas dapat siguraduhin na may face mask at face shield, at pina-practice ang good hygiene and social distancing. Ito ang primary na sandata natin laban sa COVID-19 na marami na ang hindi sumusunod kaya kailangan natin i-enforce iyan," Rye pointed out.

(When going out, make sure to wear face masks and face shields, and always practice good hygiene and social distancing. These are our primary weapons against COVID-19, which many are not following now, so we need to strictly enforce them.)

On top of the minimum health standards, Rye added that the government—both at the national and local levels—should intensify its testing, tracing, and isolation efforts to further curb the transmission of the virus especially this holiday season.

The OCTA team is an independent and interdisciplinary research group that has been studying the COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines. It is composed primarily of UP faculty members and alumni with contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College, USA.