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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider BSP forecasts higher November inflation at range of 2.4%-3.2%

BSP forecasts higher November inflation at range of 2.4%-3.2%

Published Nov 29, 2020 07:00 am

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said November inflation could hit a high of 3.2 percent from 2.5 percent in October due to the impact of bad weather on the supply and prices of food.

The BSP forecasts a range of 2.4 percent to 3.2 percent for the November consumer price index.

 “Higher domestic oil prices, as well as the impact of weather disturbances on the prices of rice and select agricultural commodities contributed to upward prices pressures during the month,” said the BSP’s Department of Economic Research.

 “These could be partly offset by the downward adjustment of electricity rates in Meralco serviced areas and the contributed appreciation of the peso,” it added.

The Philippines suffered damages due to typhoon Ulysses (Vamco) which devastated Cagayan Valley, Bicol, MIMAROPA, Laguna, Batangas and Metro Manila, specifically Marikina and Pasig, last November 12.

An estimated P13 billion damages and losses were left by the typhoon on the agricultural sector alone, according to the Department of Agriculture.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council has initially reported total damages and losses at P540 billion but later corrected the numbers down to below P5 billion. About one million households or families were affected by the typhoon which brought Ondoy-level flooding. Tropical storm Ondoy of 2009 also caused massive flooding in large areas, including Metro Manila.

The BSP’s Monetary Board, factoring in the bad weather conditions, cut the policy rate by another 25 basis points (bps) last November 19. Since February, the BSP reduced its key overnight rate by a total 200 bps.

Also on November 19, the BSP announced its latest average forecasts for 2020 which was 2.4 percent compared to its previous (October 1 policy meeting) projection of 2.3 percent. For 2021 and 2022, the forecasts were lower at 2.7 percent (from 2.8 percent) and 2.9 percent (from three percent), respectively.

BSP Deputy Governor Franciso G. Dakila Jr. said forecasts were revised due to the transitory impact of higher-than-expected inflation in September and October due to higher inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverage. He also cited the prices of meat and fish which also increased due to tightness in the supply of pork and adverse weather conditions in the case of fish.

Dakila said the recent typhoons’ impact on inflation has already been factored in on the latest estimates.

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