After its landfall over Quezon province this Sunday, typhoon "Rolly" (international name: "Goni") will possibly pass close to Metro Manila between Sunday evening and Monday morning.
In its weather bulletin Saturday morning, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather specialist Benison Estareja said Rolly will move west-southwest this Saturday toward the sea off the coast of Bicol region.
The typhoon was already around 540 kilometers east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, moving at 20 kilometers per hour (kph) around 7 a.m.
Beginning early Sunday, it will gradually turn west-northwest, bringing its inner rainbands-eyewall region near or over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur during the morning-afternoon hours and over Quezon-southern Aurora area during the afternoon-evening hours.
The center of the eye of the typhoon may pass very close or over the Calaguas Islands by Sunday afternoon and make landfall in Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon in the evening.
Estareja said the eye of Rolly will likely pass directly over Quezon-Aurora, entire Central Luzon, “where Metro Manila and Rizal will be closest,” and over parts of Ilocos Region, particularly Pangasinan and La Union.
After crossing Central Luzon, the center of Rolly may exit the mainland Luzon landmass, most likely through the Zambales-Bataan area by Monday morning, Estareja said.
Signal No. 2 up; Metro Manila under signal No. 1
The wind signal in some provinces in the Bicol region were upgraded to tropical cyclone wind signal No. 2 as damaging gale-force to storm-force winds is expected to affect these areas in the next 24 hours.
Signal No. 2 has been hoisted over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, and the southeastern portion of Quezon (San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Mulanay, Catanauan, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Calauag, Tagkawayan).
More areas were also placed under signal No. 1 in anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the approaching typhoon.
These areas were Metro Manila, the rest of Masbate including Ticao Island, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo), Northern Samar, northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and the northern portion of Biliran (Kawayan, Maripipi).
PAGASA said signal No. 3 may be raised over portions of Bicol region late Saturday.
Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be signal No. 4 for very destructive typhoon-force winds.
Elsewhere, areas that are not under not under tropical cyclone warning signal may experience strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies, particularly over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela.
Nears super-typhoon status
As of Saturday morning, Rolly has maximum sustained winds of 215 kph and gustiness of up to 265 kph.
It is close to reaching the 220 kph maximum wind speed to be classified as a supertyphoon. PAGASA is not ruling out its possible intensification into a supertyphoon within 12 hours.
Estareja said Rolly has a high chance of intensifying into a supertyphoon while on its way to the country, but there is still a slim probability that it may make landfall as a supertyphoon.
However, it is still expected to remain a strong typhoon or near supertyphoon strength by the time it makes landfall over Quezon.
While traversing Luzon, the tropical cyclone may weaken considerably to a minimal typhoon (120 kph to 140 kph yung maximum sustained winds), Estareja said. Nonetheless, Rolly is still possibly destructive.
It may emerge as a severe tropical storm over the West Philippine Sea.
Typhoon impacts
This Saturday, the trough or extension of Rolly will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, Negros Occidental, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Palawan, including Cuyo Islands, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Sulu archipelago.
From late Saturday throughout Sunday, heavy to intense rains due to the direct impact of Rolly will already be felt over Bicol region, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Metro Manila, Central Luzon Marinduque, and the northern portions of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro.
Moderate to heavy rains will also be experienced over Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino.
PAGASA warned that flooding, rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows or lahar may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall, especially in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards.
There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 meters (m) over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol region, and Northern Samar, and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
PAGASA said this storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.
Rough to “phenomenal” seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where tropical cyclone warning signal is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under tropical cyclone warning signals) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacraft over these waters, especially those under storm warning signals.
Meanwhile, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of small sea vessels were advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea, while inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Another cyclone approaching
While Rolly is raging over Luzon, Estareja said the tropical depression with international name “Atsani” could enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon. It will be assigned its local name “Siony” once inside the PAR.
It was estimated at 1,605 km east of Visayas around 4 a.m. Saturday.
Atsani has maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph, while moving west-northwestward at 25 kph. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 to 48 hours, and further into a typhoon in the next few days.
It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next three days. But Estareja said PAGASA is not ruling out a possible landfall in Central or Southern Luzon, before recurving toward the southern islands of Japan in the coming days.
He also reiterated that a Fujiwhara effect is unlikely between Rolly and Atsani. Fujiwhara effect happens when two typhoons pull each other in a seesaw-like motion.