The Philippines is in for a wet holiday season as the La Niña is expected to develop in October, 2020, and continue through early 2021.
According to Ana Liza Solis, chief of the climate monitoring and prediction section of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), climate forecasts show that December is leaning towards wetter than normal conditions due to the La Niña.
“Developing pa lang ang La Niña (but) the La Niña condition is now establishing, meaning 'pag natapos ang September, masa-satisfy na ang condition (La Niña is still developing (but) the La Niña condition is now being established, meaning when September is over, the condition may have already been satisfied),” Solis told Manila Bulletin.
“(La Niña) impacts in the Philippines will be prominent in October as depicted in our rain - fall forecasts,” she pointed out.
Solis noted that two to three tropical cyclones, which are "mostly rain-bearing, landfalling, and crossing," may form next month.
“These may trigger land - slides and flooding in most parts of Luzon, especially the eastern portion of the coun - try,” she warned.
PAGASA raised the La Niña Alert on Sept. 9 due to the increasing chance of a La Niña developing this year.
“With this development, the country may experience higher chance of strong convective activity and tropical cyclone occurrence, which may bring above normal rainfall, especially in the eastern sections of the country in the coming several months,” PAGASA Administrator Vicente Malano said in the La Niña Alert.
“Impacts also include slightly warmer air temperatures in varying degrees from place to place and from time to time due to enhanced easterlies,” he added.
What could it mean for various sectors?
In the PAGASA's climate outlook forum last month, Solis said generally above normal rainfall conditions will be likely in Luzon, while it will be near to above normal in Visayas and Mindanao come December.
By January, 2021, below normal rainfall is forecast in Ilocos Region and Central Luzon, while near to above normal rainfall will persist in most areas of southern and eastern Luzon, and generally above normal rainfall in Visayas and Mindanao.
By February, 2021, most parts of Luzon and the entire Visayas and Mindanao may receive generally near to above normal rainfall, while Ilocos Region and the Cordillera Administrative Region may have way below to below normal rainfall.
PAGASA said the impacts of La Niña may also be felt in the country's various sectors, such as in agriculture, water resources, human health, environment, and economy.
The La Niña may cause flooding in low-lying agricultural lands, causing extensive damage to growing crops and increase in pests and disease.
This weather event will also have a direct impact on the country's water resources, as it may trigger river flooding and dam spillage.
As the La Niña brings with it higher-than-usual rainfall, water-borne diseases, such as cholera, leptospirosis, and schistosomiasis — a parasitic disease caused by worms, will become more prevalent. Likewise, it could cause landslides, coastal erosion from storm swell or seaside flooding from storm surge.
La Niña may also cause damage to infrastructure, and economic losses from traffic, work, and school suspension due to floods.
"All concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the developing La Niña," Malano said.
What then could you do?
Here are tips from PAGASA
- Check flood warning advisories from PAGASA, your local disaster risk reduction and management office, and local news bulletins.
- Maximize rainwater harvesting and storage.
- Remove anything that obstructs the free flow of water in water bodies in your area.
- Cooperate on local measures to help manage the impacts of La Niña.
- Prepare post-harvest facilities for drying and storage of agricultural produce, such as rice and corn.
- Get crop insurance and check advisories from your local agricultural officials.
- Always have your emergency disaster kit ready