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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider Leachon: We cannot declare victory too soon

Leachon: We cannot declare victory too soon

Published Aug 30, 2020 07:21 pm

A public health advocate urged Filipinos to stay cautious because the battle against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still not over despite "flattening the curve" projection by medical experts.

A member of the Manila Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Office conducts anti-bacterial fogging as precautionary measure against COVID-19 (JANSEN ROMERO / MANILA BULLETIN)

In an interview over DZBB on Saturday, former adviser of the National Task Force (NTF) against COVID-19 Dr. Tony Leachon urged the public to continue observing minimum health protocols amid fears of COVID-19 local transmission.

"We cannot declare victory too soon, kasi though may nakikita yung UP (University of the Philippines) OCTA group, ang nakita kasi nya yung reproductive number natin ay bumababa na tayo sa 1.14  sa National Capital Region. Ang normal nyan dapat less than 1, ibig sabihin may local transmission pa rin, pero mas mababa yan kesa nung July dahil nag-MECQ (Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine) tayo. (Because even though UP OCTA Group daw that our reproduction number decreased to 1.14 in the National Capital Region, it's still below the standard of less than 1, that means there's still local transmission, but lower because we reverted to MECQ)," Leachon said.

" ma-maintain natin yung social behavior natin na naka-face mask tayo, naka-face shield tayo, tapos naka-social distancing tayo, siguro naman bababa yun. (If we could maintain our social behavior like wearing face maks and face shields and observing social distancing, then I guess cases could continue to decrease)," he added.

The UP OCTA Research Group projected 230,000 cases by the end of August, but Leachon said total COVID-19 cases may only reach 221,000 by August 31.

"Ngayon ay August 30, kung ang average natin ay 4,000 , magtatapos tayo ng 221,000 tomorrow. Yung target nila nabawasan lang natin ng 10,000 cases kasi nag-GCQ (General Community Quarantine) tayo, kung nag-MECQ tayo ng 2 weeks, siguro mas mababa pa yung makikita natin dyan at mas makikita natin sa mas flatten yung curve. (Today, August 30, if our average is 4,000 cases, then we will end by a total of 221,000 cases tomorrow. We only reduced their prediction by 10,000 cases because we're now in GCQ, if we extended our MECQ for 2 weeks, maybe we will see less cases and a more flattened curve)," Leachon said.

"Tingnan muna natin yung September 1 to 15, kasi naka-GCQ tayo, at kung titingnan natin kung bababa yung cases, yung R-naught, yung reproductive number natin, yung contagiousness, ay okay. (Let's observe from September 1 to 15, because we're still in GCQ, if we can decrease our R-naught, the reproductive number and contagiousness, it will be good)," he added.

Leachon also noted the country's COVID-19 positivity rate is way below the global benchmark. The Philippines' virus positivity rate stands at 14 percent -- way below the 5-percent benchmark set by the World Health Organization.

The positivity rate is the number of positive results from total tests.

The Philippines logged 4,284 new cases on Sunday, raising the total to 217,396 cases.

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