There is only a "remote possibility" that Metro Manila’s classification may be downgraded to the modified general community quarantine (MGCQ), the most relaxed community quarantine level, next week, Malacañang said Thursday.

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque highlighted that Metro Manila would have "tremendous" improvement in critical care capacity but recognized its case doubling rate stands around nine days, far from the 28-day requirement for a shift to a MGCQ level.

The quarantine outlook for Metro Manila was discussed by Roque ahead of President Duterte's public address on Monday, August 17. The new quarantine classification of Metro Manila and other areas will be announced by the President during his remarks next week, according to Roque.

Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal reverted to the stricter modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) until August 18 following a timeout plea from the medical community. These five areas were originally placed under general community quarantine (GCQ), alongside several other places, to stem the outbreak of the coronavirus. The rest of the country remained under MGCQ until mid-August.

"Ang aking prediction po huwag lang lumala 'yung case doubling time, mag-improve pa sana ng kaunti baka mayroon pa possibility na MGCQ na dahil napakalaki na ng critical care capacity ng Metro Manila (My prediction is if our case doubling time will not worsen and will slightly improve, there may be a possibility of a MGCQ because Metro Manila's critical care capacity has become bigger)," Roque said during a televised briefing Thursday.

Roque recognized that Metro Manila's critical care capacity appeared to be no longer in the "danger zone" as the government scales up the hospital bed capacity and establish more isolation centers. He said the government is set to inaugurate the additional 250 isolation beds built at the East Avenue Medical Center on August 17 that will help boost the healthcare capacity of Metro Manila.

Roque, however, clarified his pronouncement about the possibility of Metro Manila shifting to MGCQ, the least restrictive in the government's four-level community quarantine classification, saying he was just speculating.

When asked if the MECQ in Metro Manila and nearby areas will be extended, Roque said this would be “unlikely” unless Congress provides funds for financial assistance for affected sectors under the proposed Bayanihan II law.

He deferred to the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Infectious Diseases (IATF) to make the recommendation to the President for a final decision.

Granular lockdowns

In the event Metro Manila is downgraded from MECQ after August 18, the Department of Health (DOH) said the implementation of granular lockdowns, coupled with active case finding and improvement of health
system capacity, will safeguard the metropolis.

In an interview with ANC Thursday, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the DOH is already guiding local government units on how the granular lockdown should be enforced.

“Our safeguard, if and when, the government would decide that we will be easing out on these restrictions would be these granular lockdowns that we are now guiding LGUs with,” said Vergeire.

A granular lockdown means identifying specific or smaller areas experiencing spikes in COVID-19 cases and restricting the movement of the people.

Vergeire noted that recent cases in the country are “being identified in specific areas” or communities.

“When we try to look at our data the number of clustering in the communities is increasing,” she said.

The DOH recently bared its new strategy called CODE or the “Coordinated Operations to Defeat the Epidemic” to curb the rising number of COVID-19 cases.

The health agency said the key components of CODE are:

• Community engagement activities to promote preventive behaviors
• House-to-house symptom checks as a means of active case finding
• Testing by RT-PCR of those with symptoms
• Assist those that require quarantine and isolation.

But Vergeire said the government should review the safeguards and strategies being implemented in fighting the pandemic before it decides on whether to ease quarantine measures in Metro Manila and nearby provinces.

The DOH official underscored that all sides of the coin must be looked into before easing restrictions.

“We have to look at different factors. (There’s) the number of cases, how the transmission is going on and then the capacity of the health system,” Vergeire said.