Researchers from the University of the Philippines (UP) said the imposition of the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Mega Manila (consisting of Metro Manila and nearby provinces in Calabarzon and Central Luzon) will help reduce up to 70,000 its earlier projected 220,000 coronavirus cases in the country by the end of August.
"Ang bagong forecast natin ay 220,000 cases by end-August if Philippines would remain under general community quarantine (GCQ). Ngayong naka-MECQ tayo, we can save about 50,000 to 70,000 new cases," Professor Ranjit Rye of the UP Octa Research Team said in a Palace virtual briefing on Monday.
(Our new forecast is 220,000 cases by end-August if the Philippines will remain GCQ. Now that we are in MECQ, we can save about 50,000 to 70,000 new cases.)
According to Rye, placing the capital region into a stricter lockdown will make a big difference for the healthcare sector and will help reduce the transmission rate of the disease.
"Ang case reproduction rate ngayon ay nasa 1.5, after 15 days into MECQ ang r-naught ay bababa sa 1. Magtulungan tayo para pababain pa ito," he added.
(The case reproduction rate is now at 1.5, after 15 days into MECQ the r-naught will reduce into 1. Let's work together to further lower it.)
In a late-night public address on Sunday, President Duterte approved a Cabinet recommendation to again place Metro Manila, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, and Bulacan under MECQ from August 4 to 18.
This was after medical frontliners urged the government to impose a stricter lockdown due to the continuous spike of COVID-19 cases in the country.
The national tally of COVID-19 infections breached the 100,000 mark also on Sunday with a total case count of 103,185 where 35,569 are active cases, according to the health department.
"Malaking bagay ang MECQ kahit na napakalaki ng cost nito. Kung paiigtingin pa ang T3 (test-trace-treat) at sasamahan ng matinding kooperasyon ng private sector at civil society, walang kaduda-duda na babagsak ang reproduction rate after 15 days," Rye assured.
(Going back to MECQ is a big help even though its cost is huge. If T3 (test-trace-treat) is further intensified, with cooperation of the private sector and civil society, there is no doubt that the reproduction rate will fall after 15 days.)
"Maraming mase-save sa COVID-19 lalo na sa mortality, at matutulungan din nito ang mga health workers natin na talagang hirap na hirap na sa ngayon," he added.
(Many will be saved from COVID-19, especially in mortality, and it will also help our health workers who are really struggling right now.)
Meanwhile, the team urged the public to help in their own way through staying at home and observing health and safety guidelines such as practicing social distancing, frequent hand washing, and wearing of face mask and face shield.
"Let us make this MECQ worthwhile for the government (as it) should also improve its capacity on testing, tracing, and isolation," Rye said.