The Philippines is unlikely to flatten the COVID-19 pandemic curve by July or August, an expert from the University of the Philippines (UP) said Friday.
Dr. Guido David, a member of the UP-OCTA Research, said looking at the reproduction number or the r0 (r-naught) of the country, particularly in Metro Manila, the Philippines is unlikely to flatten the COVID-19 pandemic curve by July or August.
“Di ko pa nakikita na July or August ma fa-flatten siya…kasi ngayon mabilis pa iyong trajectory, mas bumilis pa nga (I don’t think it will flatten by July or August because the trajectory is going fast, even faster than before),” David said over DZMM radio.
David noted the faster transmission of the virus in the country.
“Iyong trend ng transmission sa buong bansa…medyo mabilis siya, pero umaasa tayo na medyo mapabagal ‘yan (The trend of transmission in the country…is slightly fast, but we’re hoping that it will soon slow down),” David said.
The reproduction rate or r0 (r-naught) in Metro Manila is 1.7, higher than Cebu City’s around 1.1 to 1.4, according to the UP expert.
“Ibig sabihin neto mas mabilis 'yung pagkalat sa Metro Manila, at nadadamay din iyong neighboring regions, 'yung parts ng Calabarzon at Central Luzon (This means that there is a faster transmission of the virus in Metro Manila, and eventually neighboring regions like Calabarzon and Central Luzon will also be affected),” he said.
The expert said a consistent slowing down of transmission rate in the country is needed before flattening of the curve becomes a possibility.
“Ang target natin mapababa ‘yang (transmission rate), kasi pag napababa natin 'yan talaga, baka puwedeng ma-flatten 'yung curve (Our target is to lower the transmission rate because if we lower it down it might be possible to flatten the curve),” he said.
David said he expects that the “more aggressive” solutions of the government in terms of isolation can help change the trajectory of cases in the country.