By Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz Warm and humid mornings with isolated afternoon or evening rain showers may prevail across the archipelago at the start of July, a weather forecaster said on Tuesday. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather specialist Ariel Rojas said a tropical cyclone is not expected to develop near or within the country's area of responsibility within the next three to five days. This Wednesday, the whole country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms. However, rains may become heavy or intense during the occurrence of severe thunderstorms that could trigger flash floods or landslides in high-risk areas. Citing the PAGASA’s historical data from 1948 to 2016, Rojas said the country averages two to four tropical cyclones in July. Some cyclones recurve back to the Pacific Ocean, others do not make landfall but only graze the extreme portion of Northern Luzon, while the rest make landfall over Southern, Central, or Northern Luzon, he pointed out. He said Luzon can be at risk from the tropical cyclones that may hit the country this month. Rojas noted that even if a cyclone does not make landfall and just pass through the northeastern part of Luzon, it is expected to cause heavy rainfall in the western part of Central Luzon including Metro Manila due to its enhancement of the southwest monsoon or "habagat." NEUTRAL CLIMATE CONDITION UNTIL 3Q Furthermore, he cited that majority of international climate models are favoring the continuation of ENSO-neutral (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) condition until September 2020. This means neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. However, PAGASA is closely monitoring a possible La Niña development by yearend, as international climate models are showing a 50 percent possibility of a La Niña before the end of 2020. Rojas said that during a La Niña, major parts of the country experience more intense rains, while tropical cyclones tend to form closer to land. A weak La Niña last occurred in the 4th quarter of 2017 until the first half of 2018.