By Atty. Joey D. Lina Many thought the world’s most powerful man had blinked, yet what is seen as a sign of weakness can also be viewed as strength in resist­ing the urge to retaliate with superior military power and to exercise pru­dence instead. And in so doing, an escalation of lethal conflict, or even a full-blown war – that could lead to disastrous consequences not only in the Middle East but in other regions where oil-dependent countries like the Philip­pines could suffer tremendously – was averted, at least for the time being. It was indeed prudent of United States President Donald Trump to call off at the last possible moment last Thursday the planned military strikes on radar and missile targets in Iran, in retaliation for the downing of a US drone earlier which the US claimed was shot down by Iran in international airspace. Iranian authorities said the “spy” drone crossed into their coun­try’s airspace when it was felled, with some parts of the wreckage “retrieved from Iran’s territorial waters.” “We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on three different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people Sir, was the answer from a general. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it. Not proportion­ate to shooting down an unmanned drone,” Trump said on Twitter early Friday. According to the New York Times, an unnamed US official said that “planes were in the air and ships were in position” to fire missiles at Iranian targets when word came in to stand down. There’s no doubt that Trump is correct in assessing that striking back and causing loss of lives as a consequence is not proportionate to the loss of a $130-million US Global Hawk drone that didn’t directly result in the killing of anyone. “We didn’t have a man or woman in the drone. It would have made a big, big differ­ence,” Trump said. Trump is probably right in saying that loss of American lives could make a big difference. People wary of US retaliation can easily cite historical data on atrocities some US soldiers can be capable of. In the Philippines, a well-known event that showed the US forces’ dark side is the Balangiga Massacre when thousands of Filipino civilians paid with their lives for the killing of about 48 American soldiers in the Samar town during the Filipino-American War in 1901. And there’s also the invasion of Iraq after the 9-11 terrorist attacks that killed around 3,000 people in 2001. Then US President George W. Bush ordered the invasion, citing intelli­gence claims that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to justify the war. To this day, such WMD have not surfaced. Those wary of US motives in tack­ling conflicts believe that the shooting down of the drone could have been used by the US in justifying military strikes against Iran that could lead to a full-blown war which, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, would be a “catastrophe with unpre­dictable consequences.” Putin has a point because military analysts believe that Iran has the ca­pability to launch tremendous retalia­tory strikes across the Middle East if attacked. Unlike Syria, which was hit by air strikes ordered by Trump in 2017 and 2018, “Iran and its proxies have major presences in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen,” analysts said. “Iran also has thousands of missiles with ranges of up to 1,500 miles that can hit targets around the region, including Israel, and can reach as far as southeastern Europe.” Amid a grim scenario, it is to Trump’s credit, despite what some critics say about his credibility and leadership style, that the current situ­ation did not worsen when he had a change of heart at the eleventh hour and pulled back from the brink of a dangerous escalation in the raging conflict between US and Iran. The crisis started in May, 2018, when Trump abandoned a landmark deal to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The deal was forged between Iran and the US, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany. Iran agreed to “limit the enrichment of uranium, used to make reactor fuel but also nuclear weapons; redesign a heavy-water reactor being built, whose spent fuel would contain plutonium suitable for a bomb; and allow inspections by a global watchdog. In return, relevant sanctions were lifted, allowing Iran to resume oil exports - the government’s main source of revenue.” But Trump said he wanted to rene­gotiate the deal and “broaden it to curb Iran’s ballistic missile program and its involvement in conflicts around the Middle East.” When he abandoned the deal, he began reinstating sanctions, triggering Iran’s soaring inflation and economic difficulties. Iran responded by scaling back its commitments un­der the deal by “suspending obligatory sales overseas of surplus enriched uranium and heavy water.” The conflict between US and Iran, heightened by explosions on six tank­ers that the US has blamed on Iran despite the latter’s vehement denial of involvement, is raising fears that a miscalculation could push the two sides to war. It is therefore necessary for other world powers to persuade the protago­nists to keep calm and try to reach significant agreements to de-escalate the conflict. Also, the US Congress ought to exercise its authority over military strikes. And the US must seek the support of its allies, as it did in the past, before launching military operations that would have profound repercussions around the world, especially among poor countries like the Philippines. Email: [email protected]