Renewed rumors of coup attempts are a waste of time and distracting to serious efforts at economic recovery.

At least, no coup attempt will succeed between now and 2010, and neither will destabilization efforts succeed in ousting President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from office before she officially steps down in June, 2010.

Truth to tell, the situation is not ripe for any radical upheaval. And, the Filipino people are neither desperate
nor starving. However, their patience is wearing thin and hunger is spreading.

Needless to say, there are several good reasons why coup attempts, or civil war, mass protests, rebellion, or revolution are exercises in futility for the moment while automatically wreaking havoc on the economy.

First, the people have been so traumatized by the military abuses and corruption of the martial law regime of President Ferdinand Marcos that any hint or attempt at another military takeover is considered anathema and abhorrent to the general public. Never again, they say.

Moreover, neither the Arroyo administration nor the military establishment today possesses the perspicacity, charisma and boldness of Ferdinand Marcos or the brilliance of Juan Ponce-Enrile as martial law administrator.

Paradoxically, despite the restrictions, curtailment of political freedom, and early military excesses, the Filipino people initially accepted martial law as an alternative mode to the decadent political system in 1972 which politics by the way has worsened since then.

Second, with little hope of economic empowerment, the majority of the people eagerly await the presidential elections every six years, and mid-term congressional and local elections every three years for their windfall gains from progressively excessive election spending.

With martial law or military dictatorship, the first victim is usually the suspension of elections.

For these reasons, mass rallies and demonstrations, which are instigated, funded, and promoted by leftist elements and frustrated opposition politicians, are a big nuisance without any chance of succeeding in their demands or resign advocacies, except to create traffic gridlocks, disrupt economic activity, and project a negative image of the country abroad.

If truth be told, habitual coup plotters do not have sufficient justifications for seizing political power since the communist-led NPAs do not have the numbers or critical mass to undermine the democratic government, and the Muslim secessionists still do not have the sophisticated know-how of making lethal bombs or the willingness to strap them around their waists on suicide missions.

Like the Abu Sayyaf, Muslim rebels do not want to die for their cause. They just want to generate income from kidnap-for-ransom activities.

Third, no coup or radical movement will succeed in the Philippines without the tolerance or conspiracy or the sponsorship of the United States government.

The Philippines is an invaluable strategic outpost of the US in the Pacific and China Sea.

And, the United States prefers to deal with absolute dictators or weak republics.

When all is said and done, without Constitutional reformation, or peaceful revolution as President Kennedy termed it, a coup d’etat or a revolution will eventually succeed in the Philippines perhaps between 2010 to 2016 if Constitutional reforms are not undertaken.

The 2010 election however must go on as scheduled.

You be the judge. (For comments and views, please e-mail: chaff_fromthegrain@yahoo.com.ph)