#MINDANAO

Having traveled to many cities in Mindanao over the last two weeks, the unprecedented events surrounding former President Rodrigo Duterte and the International Criminal Court as well as the responses to these, reveal that the influence of the former president Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines is deeper and stronger than expected. What this means for the elections in May and the developments in the coming years is worth examining.

The March 13 Manila Bulletin article of Keith Bacongco revealed the events that followed the transfer of the former president to the Netherlands. These gatherings took place in various Mindanao cities such as Cotabato, Iligan, Butuan, Koronadal City in South Cotabato, Tacurong, Sultan Kudarat and Zamboanga City.

Alongside these, both mainstream and social media coverage from The Hague and related actions in our courts, and discussions on the legal issues and the political significance of these events may have amplified the influence of the issue further, allowing it to spread beyond the usual echo chambers. The response of the Duterte support base, such as “unity walks,” bike and motorcycles rides, parades and gatherings were organized both here and abroad, and the araw ng Davao walk on March 16 gathered  about 30,000 as reported.

In Zamboanga City two weeks ago I saw long motorcades of Duterte supporters calling for his return. Over the next days in Davao, many houses tied ribbons on their gates seeking the former president’s return from the Netherlands. Recently, the sale of merchandise started with t-shirts, buttons and car stickers relating the same message.

Also notable was the large attendance at the 80th birthday celebration of the former president in Davao City last March 28 and the satellite celebrations in many parts of the country and the world. After the birthday celebration, images from the event such as drone shows and large crowd shots from the celebrations, may likely remain in people’s social media news feeds and conversations in the coming days, with its significance talked about for the next weeks.

These and earlier events and updates about the former president will likely be the stuff of many discussions in family dinners, offices, and places where people gather in many places in Mindanao. It is possible these discussions will recall the many important reforms launched during his presidency that have a great impact on their daily lives, such as free college education, universal Health Care, the extension of driver’s license and passport validity, and economic reforms including the infrastructure push.

All of these events in March 2025 may have further reactivated and galvanized the formidable support base of former president Duterte. With the election fever heating up with the launch of the 45 day local campaign period in the Visayas and Mindanao, this base can carry forward issues that may impact the political choices of many candidates and voters in the run up to the May national and local polls.

Indeed, these are interesting times for Mindanao and the rest of the country. How the current developments may affect the coming elections will be talked about in the coming months, and studied in the years to come.