With the United States (US) being the Philippines’ top export destination at the start of 2025, Moody’s Analytics said the tariffs that US President Donald Trump plans to impose on cross-border goods may hurt exporters.

“A potential reciprocal US tariff due to be announced on April 2 is a concern,” Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., said in a March 28 report.

Merchandise exports increased by nearly four percent year-on-year to $6.3 billion in February 2025, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported last week.

Although slower, this follows annual growth of over six percent in January 2025 and nearly 18 percent in February last year.

As the country’s largest export market, the US accounted for nearly 16 percent of all outbound shipments in February. The month’s sales to this market reached $986.8 million, inching up 0.5 percent year-on-year.

Japan closely followed the US, with $984.8 million (15.7 percent), while Hong Kong recorded $873.6 million (14 percent). China and the Netherlands rounded out the top five, with $646.6 million (over 10 percent) and $347.7 million (nearly six percent), respectively.

From January to February, export sales to the US totaled $2.1 billion, an 11.2-percent jump from a year ago levels. US-bound exports during the first two months comprised nearly 17 percent of total end-February shipments overseas.

In February, electronic products remained the country’s leading export commodity, generating $3.5 billion or over 56 percent of total exports. This was followed by other manufactured goods at $412.6 million (nearly seven percent), and machinery and transport equipment at $254.6 million (over four percent).

February imports, meanwhile, dropped to $9.4 billion from $9.6 billion a year ago and $11.5 billion a month ago.

It contrasts with the annual import growth rates seen in January 2025 and February 2024.

Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials posted the largest annual drop in import value in February.

China remained the Philippines’ top source of imports that month, accounting for $2.5 billion or over 26 percent of total.

On the other hand, the US was only the fifth-largest source of imports for the country, with $647.3-million worth or a nearly seven-percent share.

Overtaking the US, besides China, were Japan with $841.9 million (nearly nine percent), trailed by Indonesia with $803.2 million (8.5 percent). South Korea was also ahead of the US as it placed fourth out of the top five, accounting for $671.9 million or over seven percent of the total.

As such, the Philippines recorded a $3.2-billion trade-in-goods deficit in February, which was smaller than the $5.1-billion shortfall in January. It was down by over 11 percent from February 2024’s $3.6-billion deficit.