The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned on Wednesday, Jan. 22 that “above-normal” rainfall may persist in several areas until April, due to the ongoing La Niña conditions.

PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis, who heads the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of the Climate and Agrometeorology Division, explained that the climate phenomenon increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides, particularly in vulnerable areas.

Since September 2024, the country has experienced above-normal rainfall, accompanied by stronger-than-usual tropical cyclones—some reaching super typhoon strength—and more frequent cyclone formations.

Solis added that the La Niña conditions are expected to persist through the February to April 2025 season, before transitioning to a neutral phase during the March to May 2025 period, when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present.

Rainfall forecast

PAGASA’s forecast shows that most parts of the country will experience “near-to-above normal” rainfall from February to April.

However, during this period, the western parts of Luzon may see “way below” to “below-normal” rainfall.

For February, Solis said 67 provinces are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, while 14 provinces will have near-normal rainfall. Two provinces will see below-normal conditions, and one is expected to experience below-normal rainfall.

In March, 30 provinces may experience way above-normal rainfall, while 45 provinces may have above-normal precipitation, six with near-normal, and three with below-normal conditions.

While April marks the transition from the northeast to the southwest monsoon, Solis pointed out that La Niña’s impact could still bring significant rainfall over parts of the country.

Twenty provinces are expected to see way above-normal rainfall in April, 44 with above-normal conditions, 19 with near-normal rainfall, and one with below-normal precipitation.

Slim chance of cyclone development

Solis said that zero to one tropical cyclone may form in each of the months of February, March, and April. 

She explained that the peak of the northeast monsoon, locally known as “amihan,” which occurs in February, reduces the potential for cyclonic activity during the early part of the year.

However, if a cyclone forms during these months, it is expected to be mostly rain-bearing due to La Niña conditions, rather than developing into a typhoon or super typhoon, which are more commonly observed in the last quarter of the year.