Two or three tropical cyclones may enter or form within the country’s area of responsibility next month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its climate outlook for August.
The next tropical cyclone names on PAGASA’s list are Dindo, Enteng, and Ferdie.
Based on the PAGASA’s climatological record, there are four potential cyclone tracks for August.
PAGASA said some tropical cyclones may recurve towards the northern part of the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and eventually head towards Japan.
Although these cyclones are not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, their passage could enhance the southwest monsoon, known locally as “habagat.”
PAGASA said other cyclones may recurve towards the the northwestern part of PAR and eventually head towards Taiwan.
In this scenario, the cyclones are also not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, but their passage could similarly enhance the habagat.
PAGASA said some tropical cyclones could make landfall in the extreme northern islands of the Philippines before moving towards Hong Kong or Vietnam.
In another potential scenario, some tropical cyclones could make landfall in the northern parts of Luzon and then proceed towards Vietnam.
So far this year, three tropical cyclones—Aghon, Butchoy, and Carina—have entered the PAR.
PAGASA said eight to 13 tropical cyclones may still enter or form within the PAR until the end of the year—two or three each in August, September, and October, and one or two each in November and December.